| Project Detail |
Revolutionary model for volcanic thermal emissions monitoring
Volcanic eruptions have the potential to devastate local populations, infrastructure, environments, and biodiversity. Despite recent advancements in understanding and knowledge, there remains a deficiency in data and technology required for efficient and accurate monitoring of magmatic unrest and the development of practical forecasting models. Supported by the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) programme, the CARAVAGGIO project aims to address this gap by developing and validating a revolutionary thermo-chemical-mechanical (TCM) numerical model for simulating magmatic dyke propagation. This model, capable of robust analysis through various measurements and data inputs, will be tested on the Fagradalsfjall eruption in Iceland, where ample data is available.
Volcanic eruptions can have catastrophic consequences to the planet or to nearby residents and infrastructures. Although our understanding of magma ascent and volcanic eruptions has vastly improved in recent decades, many aspects of magma transport in Earth’s crust elude us, such that incomplete interpretation of signals monitored during magmatic unrest prevents the development of robust models to track magma transport and forecast the timing and location of volcanic eruptions. Hence, new efforts are needed to integrate volcanic structures with novel remote sensing monitoring techniques and cutting-edge laboratory measurements to develop comprehensive models of magma transport.
CARAVAGGIO aims to develop and validate an innovative, interdisciplinary, thermo-chemico-mechanical (TCM) numerical model to simulate magmatic dike propagation. The TCM model will permit the integration of realistic volcano-tectonic structure (lithostratigraphic heterogeneities, local faults, etc), laboratory constraints of geomaterial properties (strength, permeability, thermal properties), fluid and heat transfer from magma into fractured rocks, and spaceborne ground temperature measurements. These multi-parametric constraints will increase the robustness of modelled outputs to improve constraints on the conditions leading to magma transport and eruptions. The model will be applied to the ongoing (2021-present) Fagradalsfjall eruption (southeastern Iceland), which has been thoroughly monitored using ground-based and satellite-based instruments, and which has been cored in nearby boreholes by geothermal companies, thus providing an unparalleled level of data to validate the model outputs. The model will be shared with the community via strategic dissemination activities, and scientific achievements will be shared with the public. Ultimately, the outcomes of CARAVAGGIO will enhance future efforts aiming at forecasting the timing and locations of volcanic eruptions. |
