| Project Detail |
How is the weather in space?
The weather in space is not the same as the weather on Earth. The sun is the primary agent of space weather. Near real-time space weather nowcasts may be better than forecasting. Nowcasts are based on advanced data assimilation techniques with physics-based models. Currently, operational use of such nowcasts is limited by lack of high-quality real-time data beyond geostationary Earth orbit satellites. In this context, the EU-funded FARBES project proposes that it is impossible to accurately predict the break of a space weather event; however, once an event has started, it is possible to predict subsequent behaviour and to update predictions during the event. Using physics-based models driven by simple, affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs, FARBES will overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations.
Forecast in Space Weather modeling mostly ignore the fact everything is driven by the sun, that is basically unpredictable. Propagating observed solar dynamics to Earth is questionable, it depends on models whose boundary conditions we are incapable of constraining. We are limited to data at L1, giving a one hour lead time and neural net type forecasts of controlling parameters ( e.g. Kp) that govern the physics of our best models.
Nowcasts are better: advanced data assimilation techniques with physics based models show great fidelity in reproducing the real radiation belt (RB) environment. Operational use of such Nowcasts is limited by lack of high quality real-time data beyond GEOS.
The FARBES project is different: it limits its ambition to simple, achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators, while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects. We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the break of a space weather event, once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event. While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior, we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators on a few key event characteristics:
a. Time to most severe environment
b. Most severe Flux reached
c. Time to the end of event
These characteristics were deemed most useful by spacecraft operator representatives at ESWW16 [http://www.stce.be/esww13/contributions/public/S5-O1/S5-O1-03-PitchfordDave/FORECASTINGTHEPERFECTSTORM.ppt].
We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics based models driven by simple, affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only, we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for RB dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs |
