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International PV module prices, driven by Chinese averages, are likely to rise from $0.08-$0.10 per W today to $0.11 per W by the end of 2025 and potentially $0.13 per W in 2027, says Clean Energy Associates (CEA), noting that heterojunction and back-contact technologies now account for 12% of global module capacity. CEA has predicted that solar module prices could rise from around $0.8/W to $10/W today to $0.11/W by the end of 2025 and possibly as high as $0.13/W by 2027. “Despite government controls restricting expansion through China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which issued stricter rules for new PV capacity investments and added additional requirements and stricter standards to existing PV factories, the government’s action is not affecting the oversupply already present in the market,” a CEA spokesperson told pv magazine . “Suppliers are responding to low prices by cutting costs and leaving idle capacity, but finances remain a key concern for all suppliers looking to outlast their industry peers.” CEA analysts say the key question remains when massive supplier consolidation and capacity closures will hit the market. After a year of prolonged price declines and production at or below cost, they expect suppliers to exit the sector by 2025. However, the availability of mature tool suppliers and the Chinese markets ability to quickly build, machine, and commission new production capacities remain a concern for PV suppliers. This dampens the prospects for substantial price increases, as many production nodes have a relatively short time-to-market, the spokesperson said. The restart of some polysilicon plants may be relatively short if modern lines are shut down during supplier shutdowns and another price shock occurs. CEA said China currently has 1,040 GW of operational module capacity, up from 996 GW at the end of 2024 but below its 2025 outlook of 1,218 GW. Heterojunction (HJT) accounts for around 7% of all cell manufacturing capacity, with 97 GW of factories operating, while back contact (BC) – mainly tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) – accounts for around 5%, or 73 GW. The CEA noted that globally, these technologies represent a much smaller installed share—probably less than 1% each—due to the long-standing dominance of passivated emitter-back (PERC) cells over the past five to ten years and the recent emergence of TOPCons as the industrys primary product. The emergence of competitively priced HJTs for utility applications is more recent, and while back-contact products are available for utility-scale applications, the prominent use cases for HJTs and BCs remain in distributed generation markets, the spokesperson said. In its first-quarter solar energy report, CEA revealed that project costs using n-type products are now the benchmark, as passivated emitter and trailing cell (PERC) technology is phased out. Only markets with trade barriers to China, such as the United States, continue to use a mix of PERC, n-type, and other technologies. |
