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The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) revised antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVDs) on Vietnamese and Malaysian solar products in December 2024. The move has reshaped the non-Chinese supply chain, with further use of tariffs likely under the new administration, explains InfoLink’s Corrine Lin. The imposition of AD/CVDs by the United States on solar modules from Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia has seen imports from those nations decline sharply. With U.S. developers reliant on imports for now, countries outside those territories should benefit, although Malaysia could become more prominent, as its duties have been revised down. U.S. thin-film PV manufacturer First Solar is set to account for 20% of its home market. Imported cells topped the 12.5 GW duty-free U.S. quota during 2024, highlighting growth in U.S. solar module assembly against a small number of homegrown cell manufacturers in production at the end of the year. U.S. cell production should drive up domestic solar manufacturing overall in 2025. Stagnation and uncertainty Imports will still be needed, perhaps from Malaysia and, more likely from outside China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. US solar demand could slow thanks to the slow ramp-up of domestic manufacturers and trade policy uncertainty. For US solar to sustain growth, it is crucial to monitor import policies and to assess the likelihood of continued subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). If IRA incentives are weakened, many planned utility-scale projects may be delayed or canceled. The United States is also developing policies related to “foreign entities of concern,” aiming to prevent Chinese-funded enterprises from receiving IRA benefits for establishing manufacturing facilities on US soil. That will significantly affect PV manufacturers planning to set up United States factories, as well as investment decisions for PV projects. US solar demand is expected to have reached approximately 38 GW to 42 GW in 2024 and could move to anywhere between 36 GW and 44 GW in 2025. Energy storage The U.S. energy storage market demonstrates a steadier growth trend. The market is still dominated by the utility-side, “front-of- meter” segment, which accounts for more than 90% of installed capacity. In 2024, the five largest U.S. markets were California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, with California and Texas jointly accounting for more than 65% of the nation’s total energy storage capacity. Projects in California had an average storage duration of four hours, higher than the national average of 3.1 hours. By contrast, Texas had an average storage duration of approximately 1.7 hours, largely unchanged from 2023. With a significant increase in the number of operational projects, however, Texas has become one of the fastest-growing energy storage markets in the country. |
