| Work Detail |
Karl-Heinz Remmers examines Pakistan’s startling growth in solar energy use, which could serve as an inspiration not only for developing countries but also for Germany and the EU. In English, the term “The Blitz” refers to the attacks by the German Luftwaffe on Great Britain in 1940/41. In addition, the German word “Blitz” has found widespread use in English-speaking terminology to this day as a result of the reception of the term “Blitzkrieg”. The term “Solar Blitz” has now been used to describe a “lightning-like” expansion of photovoltaics in Pakistan. The news magazine Fokus described this development as “the most extreme expansion ever”. If we stick to the military-tinged language, “Pakistan is leading the rest of the world on the solar march”. What? Unfortunately, in Germany, Pakistan is usually only associated with poverty and terror. As in many other regions, this is a very distorted image. In 2024, “poor” Pakistan will have installed as much new photovoltaic capacity as rich Germany? Over 16 GW? Many are seriously asking themselves. For the first time, media outside the industry are reporting on an extreme solar market development before it is more widely discussed and analyzed in the industry. But what do the media reports refer to? Well, industry analyst Jenny Chase from BloombergNEF reported on developments in Pakistan in a TED talk, among other things. The video is well worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsVhgta2WAo Jenny Chase not only reports on the (notoriously very imprecise) export figures for solar modules from China to Pakistan in recent years, but above all on her analysis of satellite images to check the expansion of solar power. And lo and behold: Pakistan is suddenly teeming with photovoltaic systems. Despite all the remaining uncertainties, missing data and inaccuracies: there is a massive increase in solar power. The local and global industry is amazed, wondering what is really happening and how better data can be collected. And at the same time, Pakistan could be a harbinger of similarly massive developments in countries that were previously not expected. Or it could show the eternally complaining slow-movers in countries like Germany what so-called developing countries can do. “Anarchy on the internet”, “that won’t work with their network”, “where do they get the money from?”, “they don’t have any specialists for that” – these are the laments of those who are putting the brakes on and preventing such developments. A “poor” country shaken by crises, a nuclear power and at the same time often dysfunctional, plagued by terror. A weak power grid, blackouts as the norm, extreme droughts and heat waves as a direct result of climate change, which lead to further blackouts. This is because the need for electricity for cooling is increasing rapidly, while conventional power plants no longer receive enough cooling water. With 250 million people, Pakistan is the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population. With a gross domestic product of $338 billion, it ranks 46th, roughly comparable to the gross domestic product of the German state of Hesse with its 6.4 million inhabitants. Pakistans grid-connected electricity production and electricity consumption are given as around 110 TWh for 2024, but appear to be declining compared to 2023, which contradicts expectations of increasing demand, but could be a sign of the massive expansion of solar energy. The annual global solar radiation in Pakistan is 1.5 to 2.5 times the German values. With the possible photovoltaic expansion of 17 GW in 2024 or around 26 GW in the two years 2023/24, depending on the situation in the country, 30 to 50 TWh of solar power could be produced per year. Im sorry, what? That would be at least 30% of total electricity consumption, and it was “solarized” in a maximum of two years? That is entirely conceivable and feasible: If the regulators/grid operators cant do it, you can also generate XXL electricity yourself with solar energy. Anyone can get involved — the technology forgives many mistakes and is largely “plug and play”. The Pakistanis are also used to bridging their grid problems with diesel generators or batteries of all kinds, and now both solar modules and batteries are cheaper than ever and available in large quantities. Thanks to the good relations with China, there are no tariffs standing in the way of taking advantage of the low prices in Pakistan. You just get started, put modules on the roof, in the field or wherever. If they fall over or fall down, you just install them again. Finally having permanent and cheap electricity is an extremely good motivation and, as already described, anyone can get involved, because solar is known to range from very small to atomic size. You can see how quickly a “super grid” becomes obsolete when you combine production and consumption in a decentralized manner at thousands of locations. If the battery or generator is there anyway, there is no discussion about blackouts or anything like that. Impressive. And yes: If a poor country can do that — then many others will surely follow suit. And for our (fear-filled) discussions in Germany, Pakistan can once again be a global example of what is possible if you really want it. Or if the citizens just do it. In Germany and the EU, for example, grids are only popular as long as energy generation cannot take over a 24/7 supply 365 days a year in a decentralized manner (usually redundant anyway) at a much cheaper rate. The issue is already a reality in China: photovoltaic-wind power-storage hybrids on a gigawatt scale without a grid connection, but because their product is hydrogen and not clean electricity. This is now possible everywhere, even on a small scale, and Pakistan seems to be showing the way with warp speed and XXL. I am excited to find out what we will learn about the details in Pakistan and how big the “solar flash” really is. For me, it is already one of the most exciting and inspiring stories in my 33 years as a solar entrepreneur. I hope that the people of Pakistan can continue to shape this great development for their own benefit and I am a little jealous of this “just do it, paperwork later” mentality. |
