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The global solar module industry is expected to regain a sustainable footing within the next six months, Yana Hryshko, Head of Solar Supply Chain Research at Wood Mackenzie, told pv magazine . She explains why solar module prices may soon rise, suggesting that Tier 1 module prices could reach $0.14-0.15/W by the end of this year, and discusses how consolidation is materializing within the global PV industry. Solar module prices are expected to rise significantly from current levels over the next six months, according to Yana Hryshko, head of Solar Supply Chain Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Prices have to rise, as the Chinese solar manufacturing industry is going to do everything it can to make this happen,” he told pv magazine . “Up to 300 GW of wafer, cell and module capacity may soon disappear from the market, much of it from non-tier 1 manufacturers. And unlike tier 1 manufacturers, no one will try to save them.” Pure cell and wafer manufacturers with no downstream module manufacturing and module manufacturers with outdated technologies such as low-efficiency PERC and TOPCon are most likely to be affected. Hryshko believes that the expected wave of insolvencies would affect Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers the most, which could rebalance the market and help bridge the gap between demand and supply. “Many of the affected manufacturers may not go bankrupt, but simply repurpose their facilities for other sectors,” he says, noting that polysilicon prices are already rising, with wafer and cell prices expected to follow. “On the other hand, top-tier producers have not cut capacity but have limited output since December, when they agreed to the self-discipline agreement imposed by the Chinese government. The agreement provides for about 650 GW of output this year, which would be enough to meet global PV demand of 600 GW to 700 GW.” According to Wood Mackenzie data, the current global operational module manufacturing capacity is 1,491 TW, of which 1,188 TW is in China. Hryshko explained that this operational limit in China will create an artificial shortage of modules. “What the Chinese government is doing in this regard is having an effect,” he said, explaining that recently released PV industry manufacturing guidelines will also help consolidate China’s manufacturing landscape. “Reading between the lines, these guidelines are designed to support the largest manufacturer, because if you are not efficient enough and you have outdated technology, you cannot build new capacity.” Hryshko also notes that most of the recently announced manufacturing capacities in China are for heterojunction (HJT) or back-contact technologies. “There have been no new TOPCon installations announced so far this year, while PERC will be phased out by the end of 2025, or even sooner,” he says. “The technology transition is happening much faster than everyone expected.” Hryshko expects prices for high-quality Tier 1 solar modules to soon exceed $0.12/Wp. “This means that module prices will at least match production costs for the first time in months,” he notes. “And this should happen within six months. For a while, however, we will continue to see a lot of cheap, low-quality modules on the market, but at some point this will stop. On the other hand, we have to understand that cell, wafer and polysilicon suppliers have lost money. Especially those who are also sellers of solar cells and wafers. Now they want to recoup the lost money, and buyers have no choice.” The analyst also explains that the PV industry may return to pre-Covid levels, with module prices ranging between $0.13 and $0.14 per Wp, or even higher. “I think module prices will be between $0.12 and $0.15 per Wp, depending on the technology, by the end of 2025,” she concludes. |
