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The Energy Information Administration projects that 32.5 GW of solar, 18.2 GW of energy storage and 7.7 GW of wind generation will be deployed this year, accounting for nearly 93% of the total new capacity, which is expected to reach a record 63 GW. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that 32.5 GW ac of utility-scale solar capacity and just over 18 GW of energy storage will be deployed by 2025. The agency also said it expects 7.7 GW of wind generation and 4.4 GW of fossil gas capacity additions. The agency’s latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M) estimates that total capacity additions through 2025 will reach approximately 63 GW, the largest annual deployment volume in the country. By comparison, 48.6 GW of utility-scale capacity was deployed in 2024, the largest total since 2002, when approximately 60 GW of new capacity came online, according to the EIA. Solar is projected to account for 51.5% of all new capacity in 2025. Texas will lead deployment with 11.6 GW of new solar, accounting for nearly 36% of all additions. California follows with 2.9 GW, while five other states – Indiana, Arizona, Michigan, Florida and New York – are expected to deploy more than 1 GW of capacity each. Battery storage capacity is expected to increase significantly, at 18.2 GW. While the report does not provide details on storage duration, the two largest battery markets, California and Texas, typically deploy systems with storage capacities of four hours and two and a half hours, respectively. Texas is expected to deploy 6.7 GW of new storage, followed by California with 4.3 GW and Arizona with 3.6 GW. These three states would account for more than 80% of all new battery storage capacity. The two largest battery projects planned for 2025 each have a capacity of 500 MW. One is located in Kern County, California, and will be located next to a 500 MW solar plant, the largest planned for that year. The second is located in Wharton, Texas, and will be associated with a 451.6 MW solar installation, the second largest planned for 2025. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook Data Browser projects that small-scale solar (residential, commercial, and industrial) will add 7 GW of capacity, bringing total distributed solar deployment to 60.6 GW by the end of 2025. When combined with 32.5 GW ac (42 GW dc) of utility-scale capacity, total solar module deployment for the year could approach 50 GW. The EIA initially projected that the United States would deploy more than 50 GW of solar capacity in 2024, and estimates remained stable through the agency’s November capacity report. However, more recent data suggests that the EIA revised its 2024 capacity estimate downward by about 7 GW. This revision coincides with an expected increase in deployments in January 2025. Meanwhile, BloombergNEF estimated that US solar deployments in 2024 reached nearly 50 GW. |
