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High-efficiency solar modules are becoming scarce, prompting some retailers to stockpile in anticipation of higher prices, says Martin Schachinger, founder of pvXchange.com. He expects module prices to rise moderately but steadily at least until the beginning of the next quarter.After holding steady at the start of the year, module prices have started to rise for the first time in more than two years. The increase is affecting all technology classes, including high-efficiency modules, but the change in that category is still too small to register on price charts. This is likely to change soon. There are few discounted modules left on the market, as production cuts are causing an artificial shortage. High-efficiency modules are starting to become scarce and there is no immediate supply in sight. Some distributors are stocking up on stock to cope with the anticipated shortage. These modules will no longer be sold at bargain prices, but will be held back and repriced to weather the impending supply shortfall. As a result, module prices are likely to rise moderately but steadily at least until the beginning of the next quarter. This outlook reflects delivery delays from major brands, with mid-size PV systems not expected to be replenished until April or May. Modules for large projects follow different distribution rules, making their prices less volatile due to longer planning and shipping times. The impact of production cuts extends across the market, including ground-mounted modules. Manufacturers share supply chains, so the production reduction affects all module sizes. Some top-tier Chinese manufacturers have reportedly not produced a single module this year, and decisions on resuming production after the Chinese New Year remain uncertain. Many suppliers are still holding onto last year’s stock, but new deliveries are slowing down. What does this mean for the PV market? Its not necessarily bad news. Excess capacity remains high, particularly in China, but analysts expect global module demand to rise as growth slows from 25% to 30% a year to 8% to 12%. Production capacity remains well above demand, with 1,400 GW projected versus a forecast of 660 GW to 700 GW in 2025. Factory closures could help alleviate the supply glut, but they come with ongoing costs, likely to force smaller manufacturers out of the market. In Europe, political uncertainty and new regulations are holding back PV demand, pointing to stagnation in major markets. Germany is expected to add just 15 GW this year, down 10% from 2024. In 2025, energy storage and flexible consumption will come to the fore, driven by the Solar Peak Law. Installers unable to adapt will struggle against larger solution providers such as 1Komma5 and Enpal, which already offer AI-powered PV and storage systems and support Germany’s policy shift. Smaller installers still have options, as many inverter manufacturers now offer open-system or turnkey solutions that help consumers manage energy costs. With well-dimensioned smart energy management and storage systems, users can optimise dynamic electricity tariffs – provided that grid operators finally accelerate the long-overdue rollout of smart meters. The latest adjustments to the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) also pave the way for bi-directional EV charging, but car manufacturers must now supply the necessary hardware. In a future market with dynamic tariffs and bi-directional charging, PV systems are more than just add-ons – they are essential to maximising self-sufficiency. However, module price alone is becoming less relevant to overall system economics. Long-term reliability matters more, as maintenance or replacement costs can erode the return on investment. Rising module prices may push manufacturers to invest in higher-quality raw materials, reversing the deterioration in quality seen during the recent low-price phase. Modules sold in bulk to Europe used to lack performance reliability, especially in the higher grades, unless buyers secured specific quality agreements. With prices now trending upwards, these problems may soon be resolved, allowing end customers to finally get the reliability they expect from their PV systems. About the author: Martin Schachinger studied electrical engineering and has been working in the field of solar and renewable energy for almost 30 years. In 2004, he founded the online trading platform pvXchange.com. The company stocks standard components for new installations as well as solar modules and inverters that are no longer in production. |
