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Urgent climate and development needs with public interest have to be taken into account A rapid increase in demand may leave Africa no choice but to make a substantial investment in nuclear energy, writes Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures and Innovation, ISS (Institute for Security Studies) Pretoria. In a world that must urgently move away from fossil fuels to limit global warming, what does Africa’s long-term energy future look like? Analysis by the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures programme examined two factors that will determine Africa’s future energy landscape: demand and population growth. Meeting energy demands in Africa First, substantial increases in energy demand will accompany Africa’s development. Rapid development requires the availability of 8.62 barrels of oil equivalent per person a year. The average in Africa currently is three barrels, the lowest of any region globally. Second, Africa is experiencing rapid population growth. In 2022, Africa’s population reached 1.448 billion people, surpassing that of India (still growing) and China (which has peaked). By 2066, Africa’s population (then at 3.2 billion people) will be almost double that of India, while China’s will continue its steady decline. A rapid rise in the energy needs of its growing population means that Africa’s energy demand will, from around 2061, exceed that of India. Faster economic growth due to productivity and other improvements will lead to even more significant increases in Africa’s demand and associated carbon emissions. Modelling using the International Futures forecasting platform from the University of Denver explores the extent to which Africa could transition away from fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas. Oil currently accounts for 43% of Africa’s energy production, gas for 33%, and coal for around 19%. Our Current Path forecast indicates that by 2050, oil will still account for 17% of Africa’s energy production, gas for 40% and coal for 7%. With effort, reducing these numbers might be possible, particularly for oil and coal. Still, Africa is unlikely to be able to wean itself off gas, implying a slower transition away from fossil fuels than required to keep even a 2°C goal alive. The implication is that other regions of the world would have to reduce emissions rapidly to provide space for those from Africa. Although much of its fossil fuels are exported, Africa is more fossil fuel-dependent than any other region globally. This means a small portion of its energy production comes from nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal or other renewables. On the one hand, Africa’s limited fossil fuel infrastructure (such as refining capacity, pipelines, etc.) positions it well for a more rapid transition to clean energy sources. On the other, given the growing domestic energy demand, Africans will likely use more of their fossil fuels to meet domestic requirements, reducing exports. Whereas other regions with higher energy production and slower-growing populations can steadily replace fossil fuel use with other sources, our modelling shows this will be harder in Africa. Mapping renewables Wind, solar, geothermal and other renewables account for only 2% of Africa’s total energy production. It will take a long time to scale this up to replace some of the energy currently provided by fossil fuels. Wind and solar have a large potential to provide household electricity through off- and mini-grid applications in rural areas, but won’t resolve Africa’s base-load requirement. Without a breakthrough in energy storage, the intermittent nature of renewables presents a significant obstacle for countries looking to exploit their commodities and industrialise. In surveying the options, it seems the only available technologies that could moderate Africa’s fossil fuel-dependent energy pathway are nuclear, hydro and possibly geothermal. All three are expensive, take years to build, and come with environmental challenges, not to mention that Africa has very little of them currently in place. |
