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Martin Schachinger, founder of pvXchange.com, says that PV module prices will depend on domestic and international demand trends in the coming months, with results ranging from increases to stagnation or further declines. Almost anything is possible, but nothing is certain. First, the good news: At the beginning of the year, module prices have remained stable for high-efficiency products and other typologies. Even modules with an all-black appearance, reintroduced into the price index in January, are experiencing minimal price movement. The upward trends in the lower price categories reflected in the graph and barometer below are partly due to the updating of typological divisions. Technological advances have shifted the boundary between high-efficiency and conventional modules to 22.5%. Now for the bad news: As predicted in December 2024, product availability is getting worse, especially for high-performance PV modules. These modules, often reserved for large-scale projects or select customers, remain in short supply. Free inventory usually only arises when projects are delayed or cancelled. Short-term access to certain inverters and storage systems is also problematic, forcing suppliers to propose alternatives. Logistical problems after the holidays and delays in restarting production by some manufacturers exacerbate the situation. Chinese manufacturers in particular, in order to counteract destructive competition and overproduction in Europe, have created an artificial shortage. The price crash at the end of the year added to the complexity. In November and December, suppliers dumped warehouse stock at rock-bottom prices to clean up their balance sheets, leaving the market saturated with low-cost stock. The first quarter is typically quiet, so demand for new products remains weak, particularly in Germany. Here, uncertainty surrounding possible government changes and the global implications of Donald Trumps re-election in the US have dampened momentum. The trajectory of module prices – whether rising, stagnant or falling – depends largely on domestic and international demand in the coming months. Almost any scenario is possible, with no clear certainty. Changes in the module price index further complicate the picture. Modules with power ratings such as 440 W and 575 W, which were considered rare and expensive six months ago, have now become standard products. The efficiency threshold for high-efficiency modules now starts at 22.5% or at specific power ratings such as 450 W, 585 W and 700 W, depending on the format. However, manufacturers data sheets often exclude the frame area when reporting efficiency, leading to discrepancies. Suppliers often charge more for higher-performance classes, even though the production technology remains the same. This reclassification has altered prices. For example, the January price for conventional modules includes several performance classes that were previously classified as high-efficiency. The overall index now reflects fewer cheap modules, creating uncertainty visible in the shading of the accompanying chart. Using previous calculation methods, the price increase for conventional modules appears less dramatic, while high-efficiency prices have declined moderately rather than stagnating. All-black modules, which have been reintroduced into the price index after a hiatus since April 2022, show a slight price premium. Historically, these modules did not show any price differences compared to black-and-white products. However, aesthetic demands from customers in residential installations have driven a price difference of several euro cents per watt-peak. In the case of glass-glass modules, which are mainly manufactured in bifacial, these premiums are due more to the appearance achieved by subsequent glass printing than to production costs. Customers willingness to pay more for black modules may be due to the meticulous cell selection required to achieve a uniform look, although quality issues remain. The longevity of this premium remains unclear, but market watchers continue to monitor price developments and call on manufacturers to address product quality issues. About the author: Martin Schachinger studied electrical engineering and has been working in the field of photovoltaics and renewable energies for almost 30 years. In 2004, he founded the online trading platform pvXchange.com. The company stocks standard components for new installations as well as solar modules and inverters that are no longer in production. |
