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According to Climatempo forecasts, the phenomenon is expected to persist throughout the summer. Hydroelectric generation will benefit, but wind and solar sources will suffer due to lower wind intensity and fewer sunny days. The presence of La Niña in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean was confirmed on January 9 by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and is expected to persist throughout the summer. The phenomenon has various repercussions on the energy sector. It will be positive for hydroelectric generation, due to the good quality of the rainy season, but negative for wind and solar generation, due to less intense winds and fewer sunny days, according to an analysis by Climatempo, a meteorological and weather forecasting consulting company in Brazil and Latin America. As for hydroelectric generation, reservoirs recovered at the beginning of the wet season due to high rainfall volumes, well distributed across the different regions, especially in the headwaters of the Paraná River basin, which includes the Grande and Paranaíba rivers. With La Niña, this rainy scenario is expected to continue throughout the summer in central Brazil. According to meteorologist Marcely Sondermann, a Climate and Climate Change specialist at Climatempo, the scenario should be similar to that observed throughout the spring of 2024, when the cooling of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the consequent formation of La Niña favored the occurrence of humidity convergence zones and increased the frequency of rainfall over the main basins of the National Interconnected System (SIN). At the same time, there was a gradual recovery of reservoir levels, factors that contributed to the reduction of energy rates. The expectation is that the phenomenon will now have a similar effect in the summer as it had in the spring, contributing to the generation of water, she says. Adverse effects of La Niña But not all regions will benefit from more rain. In southern Brazil, rainfall has already started to become more irregular. According to Marcely Sondermann, La Niña could have a negative impact on water generation in the region, due to the expected reduction in rainfall, with a predominance of dry and sunny days. As for wind power generation, La Niña could reduce the generation potential in the Northeast, where the countrys main wind farms are located. This is because wind speed is inversely correlated with rainfall, meaning that during the wettest periods, wind intensity tends to decrease, which impacts energy generation. Regarding solar energy, La Niña could limit the generation of photovoltaic energy due to the greater frequency of cloudy and rainy days expected during the duration of the phenomenon, especially between the northeast and southeast, in states such as Piauí and Minas Gerais, where the countrys main solar parks are located. El Niño has marked the last two years Between 2023 and 2024, the climate was affected by a strong El Niño phenomenon, which caused extreme events, intensified by the effects of global warming. There were significant changes in rainfall and temperatures in Brazil. “In the South, for example, there was extreme and frequent rainfall, which caused innumerable social, economic and environmental losses. On the other hand, the Northern Region faced two consecutive severe historical droughts during this period, which directly affected the generation and transmission of energy,” says Marcely Sondermann. Remember that due to the historic drought on the Madeira River, one of the largest electricity transmission lines in Brazil, connecting the North and Southeast regions, was interrupted. In central Brazil, where the countrys main energy reservoirs are located, the scenario was one of below-average rainfall and intense heat waves, which increased energy consumption. This combination caused a drop in reservoir levels and the need to turn on thermal power plants, which raised costs and had a direct impact on energy prices. |
