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A new report says that 2025 may see a major shift in the distribution of solar South Africa and Egypt are the two countries in Africa with the largest chunk of new solar capacity installed in 2024. But despite the continent continuing to show progress in the sector, the gap with the rest of the world continues to widen. The two countries account for nearly 80% of the nearly 2.5GWp installed in Africa in 2024, with commercial and industrial (C&I) solar projects especially significant for South Africa. However, despite topping the table, South Africa experienced a sharp decline in installation rates in 2024, with just under 35% of solar capacity installed in 2023 added in 2024. Such a low share of business is not doing justice to the African solar potential nor the need for new power generation across the continent AFSIA’s Africa Solar Outlook 2025 report, released today (15 January) points out that Africa has added 2.5GWp of new solar capacity in 2024, reaching a total of 19.2GWp across the continent. Now in its fifth year, the report says the number is definitely an underestimation of the real capacity added because it: Does not account for residential installation (which is not yet tracked by AFSIA), and Is based only on projects identified by AFSIA and some installations may still be unknown at this point.Globally, between 400GW and 600GW of solar capacity was installed in 2024, “once again the most it has ever added in history.” In 2023, an estimated 350GWp were added globally. As a result, 2024 saw another record growth year for global solar installations of 44%, maintaining the solid growth rate of 46% already experienced in 2023, says the report. This puts 2024 in the top four of best years ever for global solar for the data available (2011 and 2016 both saw a Y-o-Y growth slightly over 50%). Africa’s new installed capacity miniscule In 2024, African solar represented 0.5% of all global new capacity. “This is a level not seen since 2013. Such a low share of business is not doing justice to the African solar potential nor the need for new power generation across the continent.” The report says that it is to be hoped that financing streams evolve in the coming years so that Africa can fully exploit its unrivalled solar potential. “But while 2024 may not have been great in terms of new capacity added, several major projects have experienced significant progress or have been announced.” In 2024, 40GWs worth of new projects in Africa were announced. This, the report says, represents a 21% increase of the projects pipeline compared to the same time last year and indicates a sustained desire from the private and the public sector to roll out solar across the continent. “While risk and uncertainty may always affect plans and announcement negatively, the pipeline for solar in Africa is dense and the African solar future remains promising.” Despite the comparatively smaller growth than elsewhere, solar project installation presses on across Africa. “As in previous years, solar continues to spread its wings across the continent.”” A snapshot of installed solar across Africa in 2024 compared to 2023 Two countries installed more than 100MW (+1) 16 countries installed more than 10 MW (unchanged) 29 countries installed more than 1MW (+2) “This is a minor improvement to figures from 2023 and no notable difference is to be highlighted in terms of project sizes between 2023 and 2024.” Top five countries with largest new solar capacity installed in Africa in 2024 are: South Africa – 1,235 MWp (ranking unchanged) Egypt – 707 MWp (+5) Zambia – 74.8 MWp (+8) Nigeria – 63.5 MWp (+6) Angola – 53.8 MWp (+10) “Despite a significant decrease of new capacity added in 2024, South Africa maintains its leader’s position in African solar and remains the only African country which is part of the “Gigawatt Club.” How the newcomers to top five for new installed solar capacity in 2025 got there Egypt climbed to the second position thanks to the commissioning of two projects in Kom Ombo. Zambia has faced severe loadshedding and has had to turn to solar in emergency mode. This year’s performance is probably the tip of the iceberg of what may be expected in the next two years in Zambia Nigeria starts feeling the positive impact of the fuel subsidy removal and an increased interest for solar+storage as a cheaper alternative to diesel. Angola climbs back in the top 5 as it finishes its utility-scale projects roll-out with MCA and Sun Africa started two years ago with two projects of 27MWp each. South Africa and Egypt dominate The report says that “business remains highly concentrated in only two countries” – South Africa and Egypt. “From the almost 2.5GWp installed in Africa in 2024, 78% come from only two countries: South Africa and Egypt, representing respectively 50% and 29% of the continent’s performance.” However, the share of South Africa has significantly reduced compared to 2023 when the country saw 80% of all African solar that year put online. Afsia says one of the reasons for this may be erroneously assigning projects to 2023. But this does not necessarily mean that solar has become more equally distributed across other African countries. “In fact, almost all the capacity no longer installed in South Africa has been replaced by capacity in Egypt. “And what is even more: 700MW out of the country’s 707MW were installed through only two neighbouring projects in Kom Ombo. In 2024, the lion’s share of solar in Africa has remained highly concentrated.” The report says that 2025 may see a major shift in the distribution of solar though, as several landmark projects have started construction in countries that do not belong to the group of “usual suspects” for solar leaders in Africa. Utility-scale solar made a comeback in 2024 In 2024, utility-scale solar represented almost 72% of all new capacity installed, the report notes. “This is a major shift from the last two years where C&I [commercial & industrial] was the leading contributor of solar in Africa, mostly driven by the market evolution in South Africa. “With 75% of the market share, utility-scale solar back again holds the traditional weight it has had over the past decade in Africa,” says the report. And the market, it highlights, is driven again by a handful of DFI-funded projects developed by international private companies and having the national utility company as off-taker, with the financial backing of the local government. The report highlights two notable exceptions: C&I in South Africa remains important with 39% of the market. This is being driven both by a multitude of small private C&I projects (also called embedded generation) and large wheeling projects. Due to the very poor grid infrastructure in Nigeria, the country is not fertile ground for utility-scale solar. Instead, C&I, mini-grids and residential solar are the most prevalent forms of solar technology, with C&I representing the overwhelming majority of the capacity installed. |
