| Work Detail |
After falling to historic lows in 2024 due to lower metal costs and increased scale, lithium-ion battery prices are expected to enter a period of stabilization. The rapid decline in lithium-ion battery prices seen in previous years is likely to slow in 2025 due to a rebound in battery material costs. These costs will in turn be partly offset by falling manufacturing costs, driven by economies of scale and increasing efficiency, resulting in a flatter price trajectory. According to Taipei-based intelligence provider TrendForce, the prolonged decline in Chinese battery prices for electric vehicles and energy storage systems (ESS) has already shown signs of easing in the fourth quarter of 2024. Overall, the decline in lithium-ion battery cell prices in 2024 was larger than that seen in battery metal prices, indicating that battery makers margins were shrinking. Suppliers are therefore expected to push for higher prices to mitigate losses as global demand for electric vehicles and energy storage is projected to grow in 2025. “This is expected to support the prices of key battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium-ion battery copper foil, and electrolytes, thereby stabilizing average battery cell prices in the first quarter of 2025,” TrendForce said. Looking ahead to 2025, the Chinese EV market is expected to benefit from government policies such as vehicle trade-in incentives, which will drive an estimated 30% year-on-year increase in sales. According to TrendForce, this optimistic demand outlook will stabilize battery material costs, with January EV battery prices expected to remain close to December levels. Meanwhile, as we enter the traditional off-season for energy storage in the first quarter of 2025, many battery manufacturers are likely to cut production. According to TrendForce, coupled with relatively stable material costs, ESS battery prices in January are expected to remain stable. Analysts note that the price declines for most battery materials have largely stabilized, with limited scope for further reductions. Materials such as LFP, the copper foil in lithium-ion batteries, and electrolytes, which have caused sustained losses to suppliers, saw slight price increases in December 2024. In the near term, rising raw material costs will require greater efforts to control overall production expenses, according to TrendForce. Amid intense competition, ESS battery market manufacturers have shifted their focus to technological advancement and improved production processes. Some companies have already introduced ultra-large capacity battery storage cells exceeding 500Ah, and they are expected to gradually enter the market in 2025. |
