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Solar and wind are being installed at a rate five times faster than all other new electricity sources combined. This provides compelling market-based evidence that PV and wind are now the most competitive and practical methods for deploying new generating capacity. Solar and wind power catch up with nuclear power By 2024, new global solar generating capacity was deployed 100 times faster than net new nuclear capacity, according to recent data from the World Nuclear Association, the International Energy Agency and Ember. New wind power was deployed 25 times faster than nuclear. The fastest energy shift in history continues. Net additions of global non-fossil capacity. Net new nuclear capacity has averaged 2 GW per year over the past decade, including 5.5 GW in 2024, with old plants being retired almost as fast as new ones are coming online. Some 700 GW of new solar and wind power will be deployed in 2024. Solar electricity generation is increasing tenfold every decade, while nuclear has remained static since 2000. Solar and wind electricity generation (Terawatt-hours) will overtake nuclear this year. The market is clear: solar and wind electricity are cheaper than nuclear. The stagnation in global deployment of nuclear power plants since 2000 means that the supply chains, financing and skilled personnel to drive rapid nuclear capacity increases are not available. Nuclear power plant construction is a cottage industry compared to solar. Nuclear power plants are typically 1 GW in size. The average construction time for a nuclear reactor is 6-8 years (not counting the time needed for planning and permitting). In addition, nuclear power plant construction has a negative learning rate; that is, rather than building plants getting better and cheaper, costs have increased over time. The idea that there will be a revival of the nuclear industry has about the same credibility as the idea that film cameras will be resurrected to match the popularity of digital cameras. Fossil fuels Electricity generation from coal and gas has been stagnant since 2021 (Ember). The peak may have occurred in 2023. At current growth rates, there will be more global solar and wind generation by 2032 than coal and gas combined. Global electricity production. More than half of the world’s total new solar and wind power in 2024 was deployed in China. If the new US administration succeeds in slowing down solar and wind deployment, a huge chasm will open up between China and the US. China is banking on clean, cheap renewables, while the US could cling to fossil fuels, which could have serious economic consequences in the 2030s. Solar and wind power win the energy race The electrification of transport, heating and industry will double or triple electricity demand in developed countries. In developing countries, rising wealth and the “electrification of everything” could lead to a fivefold increase in electricity production by mid-century. New solar and wind capacity is being deployed about five times faster than everything else combined (hydro, coal, gas, nuclear and others). Nearly all of the growth in electricity demand is being met by solar and wind. Solar and wind energy storage is solved thanks to batteries and water pumping. As solar and wind deployment increases, coal and gas power plants are finding themselves facing lower prices with every sunny and windy day. In an open electricity market (like Australia’s), they cut output most days to avoid negative prices, thereby reducing their revenues. This in turn forces coal and gas plants out of the market sooner than many analysts expect, creating space for more solar and wind power. Australia is on track for 75% solar and wind electricity by 2030. If a hypothetical new cheap nuclear or carbon capture and storage technology were developed tomorrow, it would require unprecedented (magic) growth rates to catch up with solar and wind before 2050, by which time solar and wind would have already done the work of decarbonizing the world. Solar and wind ensure cheap clean energy forever. They are by far the best option for mitigating global warming. |
