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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was valued this week at $20.360/kg, or $0.046/W, unchanged from its last price on December 17, as market fundamentals remained unchanged.
Some GPM manufacturers have reportedly resorted to production cuts, with operating rates falling to around 30% during certain periods. However, demand remains weak and suppliers are reluctant to lower prices further, stifling transactions in the market and hampering any revitalization efforts.
Despite these challenges, optimism remains regarding the outlook for the GPM market, given its close link to trade policies. On the one hand, since modules made from traceable Chinese polysilicon are not entirely excluded from the US market, low-cost Chinese products continue to weigh on GPM prices. On the other hand, industry experts see the possible implementation of clearer and stricter US restrictions on Chinese solar products as a “critical path” to revitalizing the global polysilicon market and express confidence in the likelihood of such measures being introduced.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment of domestic monograde polysilicon prices, held steady this week at 33 yuan/kg, equivalent to 0.074 yuan ($0.010)/W. Meanwhile, China Mono Premium, OPIS’s assessed price for monograde polysilicon destined for n-type ingot production, rose slightly by 0.96% to 39.375 yuan/kg, or 0.089 yuan/W, compared with the last assessed price on Dec. 17.
In the last week of 2024, China’s two major polysilicon manufacturers, Tongwei and Daqo, issued official statements announcing production cuts. Both companies cited adherence to a previously signed “self-regulation agreement” aimed at controlling production capacity and curbing harmful competition as justification for these reductions. While the exact magnitude of these production cuts has not been disclosed, OPIS market research reveals that one of the manufacturers has completely halted operations at its Yunnan and Sichuan facilities. Currently, only its Baotou production base in Inner Mongolia remains operational, with a monthly output of approximately 20,000 tons. Considering that the company’s annual production capacity is about 900,000 tons, this equates to an operating rate of approximately 26%.
The industry expects the problem of overcapacity in polysilicon production to persist into 2025. China’s polysilicon inventory of 400,000 tons at the end of 2024 could sustain wafer production for four months without new production. It was also stressed that administrative measures, such as “self-regulation” to maintain low operating rates, could become standard practice by 2025.
The official launch of polysilicon futures trading in the last week of 2024 is believed to have contributed to the surge in the price of n-type polysilicon this week. Experts see this initiative as a possible solution to alleviate overstocking, stabilise prices in 2025 and deal with overcapacity. However, no wafer producer has yet purchased polysilicon through the futures market, with most participants being commercial traders. This suggests that futures trading is still in its early stages. At present, experts estimate that the impact may be more financial than physical, as actual physical deliveries are expected to account for only 30% to 50% of total trading volume. |
