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Mark Z. Jacobson, a professor at Stanford University (USA), spoke to pv magazine about a recent research paper showing that California could easily support a large grid dominated by wind, hydro and solar power. According to Jacobson, current electricity prices in the state are high for several reasons that have nothing to do with renewables. These include high fossil gas prices and the cost of modernizing aging transmission and distribution lines. New research from Stanford University has shown that California could rely heavily on renewable energy to meet its electricity demand without the risk of blackouts and high energy prices. “Our work shows that the main grid of the world’s fifth-largest economy was able to supply more than 100 percent of its electricity use from just four clean renewable sources – solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal – for anywhere from 5 minutes to more than 10 hours a day for 98 of 116 days in late winter, all of spring and early summer, and for 132 days throughout 2024, without its grid failing,” Mark Jacobson, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University and lead author of the research, told pv magazine . According to the study, the growth of solar, wind, and battery storage, in particular, caused fossil gas use to decline by 40% over the 116-day period and by 25% for the full year of 2024 relative to 2023. “Compared to 2023, solar, wind, and battery capacities increased significantly, with batteries doubling in capacity,” Jacobson added. “In fact, batteries covered a peak of 12% of nighttime demand during the period of interest. The 25% decline in gas use on the CAISO grid in just one year indicates that a complete phaseout of gas is approaching. This also debunks the myth that gas must increase when renewables on the grid increase.” Jacobson also explained that California’s high electricity prices have nothing to do with renewables. “Without renewables, prices would have been higher,” he went on to say. “In fact, 10 of the 11 US states with the highest fractions of their demand fueled by renewables have some of the lowest electricity prices in the US.” In contrast, in California, the spot price of electricity fell by more than 50% over the 2023-2024 period of interest, indicating that it was easier to match demand to supply with the rise of renewables and batteries in 2024.” According to Jacobson, California electricity prices are high for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with renewables. These include high fossil gas prices, the passing on to customers by utilities of the cost of wildfires caused by sparks from transmission lines, the cost of burying transmission lines to reduce those fires, the costs of the San Bruno and Aliso Canyon gas disasters, the cost of retrofitting gas pipelines after San Bruno, the cost of modernizing aging transmission and distribution lines, and the cost of keeping the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant open. “In summary, the available data indicate that increasing the share of wind, solar and hydroelectric power reduces electricity prices across the United States,” Jacobson said. “When high prices occur, they are not due to renewables.” The researchers conclude that building an energy system based solely on renewables could be technically challenging but economically viable, with solar and batteries behind the meter helping to reduce remaining fossil gas use in the face of rising electricity demand. They also believe that nighttime demand could be met with offshore wind, which peaks during evenings and summers in California, and by shifting more hydroelectricity from day to night, as well as more effectively using demand response. The research results are available in the article “ No blackouts or cost increases due to 100 % clean, renewable electricity powering California for parts of 98 days”, recently published in Renewable Energy . |
