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In a new weekly update to pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that variations in weather patterns, including El Niño and regional droughts, shaped solar energy performance around the world last year.
After 2023 broke the record as the sunniest year of the century, 2024 brought with it more varied irradiance trends, according to an analysis using the Solcast API. Variations in weather patterns, including El Niño and regional droughts, shaped solar performance around the world. Even though data shows 2024 was the second-warmest year on record, this is not directly correlated with irradiance, and the solar picture is more varied across the world.
While regions such as South America and sub-Saharan Africa enjoyed a relatively sunny year, others, such as Canada, Western Europe and India, had to contend with increased cloud cover and lower solar output potential. Eastern Europe and southern Australia have emerged as bright spots, benefiting from localised weather patterns that favoured clear skies.
America
Canada and Alaska experienced a notably cloudy year in 2024, with solar irradiance below the long-term average across much of the region. In contrast, the Midwest U.S. enjoyed higher irradiance, while most other areas, including the Gulf Coast and Florida, saw typical or below-typical solar conditions. A particularly active storm season in the Gulf contributed to reduced irradiance in the southeastern United States.
Further south, Mexico and South America generally experienced above-average solar conditions. Dry conditions in the Amazon, with less evaporation and less convective cloud formation in tropical afternoons, were key factors in the exceptional solar irradiation in the region.
Europe and Africa
2024 reversed the sunny trend in Europe seen in 2023, with conditions significantly diverging between western and eastern regions.
Western Europe had to deal with cloudier than usual skies as well as several significant storms, although the Iberian Peninsula had almost atypical conditions. Eastern Europe, however, was sunnier than the long-term average, offering great potential for solar production.
Sub-Saharan Africa also recorded above-average irradiance, in addition to the already high long-term average, reinforcing the regions solar energy potential.
Asia and Oceania
India had an unusually cloudy year with below-average solar potential. This was influenced by rainy conditions during the southwest monsoon over India, which was more active in 2024 than usual. However, inland China still experienced higher irradiance, likely influenced by reduced aerosol loading.
Solar conditions across much of Southeast Asia were slightly above average, although parts of maritime Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia and surrounding areas, had near- or below-average irradiance with above-average precipitation. Similarly, northern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan recorded slightly below-average irradiance.
In Australia, several monsoon episodes, tropical cyclones and thunderstorm outbreaks brought cloud cover to the north of the country. However, dry north-westerly winds brought sunnier than usual weather to the southern regions.
Although irradiance in 2024 was lower than in previous years, the rapid and continued increase in solar capacity caused global solar production to break new records everywhere. As capacity increases, each year sets a new record for solar production, renewable share in electricity generation and game-changing potential in the energy transition.
Solcast produces these figures by globally tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2 km resolution, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud tracking forecasts. This data is used by over 300 companies managing over 150 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
