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2025 will be a turning point for the U.S. solar industry, according to industry leaders who shared their predictions with pv magazine .
The change in administration brings some uncertainty, but the industry’s momentum has created jobs in many sectors, revived American manufacturing, and created an economic force that’s hard to ignore. JD Dillon of Tigo Energy predicts that solar is here to stay. “Solar, as an industry, is here to stay and will continue to grow over the long term. The combination of industry jobs, economic improvements, and doing the “right thing” for the planet will lead to the inevitable upward trend of the solar industry.”
2025 will be a turning point for the U.S. solar industry, according to industry leaders who shared their predictions with pv magazine .
The IRA will remain
Scott Wiater, president and CEO of Standard Solar, a developer of commercial and community solar, is optimistic about the future of the solar sector in 2025 and beyond. He noted that the outgoing administration created the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) , which primarily benefits red states. “There’s little chance of the IRA being rolled back because no one wants their districts’ money cut,” Wiater said. “Solar’s ??momentum is inevitable, and I think we’ll continue to see record deployment across the United States, particularly in the commercial/community solar segments.”
The next step is to level the playing field. “I would also like to see solar power compete on a level playing field with all the other traditional electricity-producing technologies. What we can do as an industry is keep our heads down and keep moving forward, because the solar revolution is here, and America will be a better country for it.”
Disinformation and media attacks
Tor Valenza, aka “Solar Fred,” is a solar marketing executive, writer, podcaster, and founder and communications director of UnThink Solar, a public relations and content marketing firm. His prediction for 2025 is that the solar and clean energy sectors will face a barrage of misinformation and media attacks over the next four years. “Solar companies and energy advocacy organizations that are prepared to respond with accurate, concise messaging, imagery, and data will be best positioned to grow in 2025,” he says. If these resources are in place, Valenza believes the solar industry can benefit from “free political attention.” His hope is that all solar and storage company CEOs will become local and national thought leaders, speaking candidly and positively to the media when the fight for the IRA begins.
“Let’s remember that every individual and every solar company today has a global media empire embedded in their phones and computers. If we can all be brave enough to use this technology and stay consistent with the above actions, 2025 will be another fantastic year for the solar industry,” Valenza concluded.
Demand for electricity
Raghu Belur, co-founder and chief product officer at Enphase Energy, a microinverter and energy storage company, expects energy demand to continue its upward trajectory. “Energy demand will continue to accelerate due to electrification, driven by electric vehicles, heat pumps, data centers, and more,” Belur said. “Renewables will be the most cost-effective and scalable solution to meet this demand, especially as other energy sources remain expensive or slow to deploy.”
VPP Policy and Regulations
Ken Schisler, senior vice president of law and policy at CPower, a provider of distributed energy resource monetization and virtual power plants (VPPs), believes that if grid operators don’t fix their problems, politicians will, and they’re paying attention. “We’ve seen this in the past in Texas, when the leadership of their grid operator, members of their board of directors, and commissioners on the state’s regulatory board resigned after widespread power outages during Winter Storm Uri a few years ago,” Schisler says. Now, governors in several PJM states have asked the grid operator to help cut costs because they’re concerned that rising prices will affect consumers.” Meanwhile, across the country, California’s governor has signed an executive order to curb rising costs for consumers, including by cutting state programs that could be inflating electricity bills. When prices get out of control, politicians do something to change them.
Rooftop solar and prospecting improve
Piers Dormeyer, CEO of Eagleview, a US-based aerial imagery provider, expects to see further consolidation of the solar market within the rooftop sector, making it easier for customers to add solar solutions to their homes. “The weakness of the solar market in 2024 led to many quality solar companies creating roofing divisions. Now, the rooftop sector has had consecutive years of great strength thanks to the impact of weather conditions. With legal and regulatory changes from insurers, 2025 will be the year that roofing companies significantly expand their offering into solar.”
In addition, the Eagleview executive predicts that prospecting, qualifying and estimating will become a more exact science. “The improvements that technology will bring to solar companies’ prospecting, their ability to qualify clients from the office and desktop, and the creation of accurate and instant quotes will put those who use it several notches above their competitors.”
The IRA will prevail; a shake-up is coming
Lie Shi, CEO of AM Batteries, a specialist in dry cell electrodes, sees the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enduring, despite the uncertainty. “First, dismantling it is a legislative challenge. And second, 75% of the grants have been allocated to Republican districts, and 50% to swing states, ensuring – albeit somewhat tenuously – bipartisan support.”
Shi predicts that “Made in America” will become a major theme in the cleantech space, as the new administration has stated that it plans to build walls to attract investment to the United States. He also expects upheaval in the cleantech sector. “Only the strongest players with true technical differentiation will survive, while those who jumped on the bandwagon without a clear competitive advantage will be pushed out by 2025.”
Growth of community solar energy
Vihann Kong, CEO of community solar subscription management company Ampion, expects more states, like Pennsylvania and Ohio, to pass community solar legislation. Kong believes one driver of this growth is business demand. While corporations are responsible for the rising cost of electricity and driving demand, such as data centers, “we’re seeing Fortune 500 companies like Walmart increase their power 5x per store over the next decade, and Wendy’s subscribing its stores to community solar.” He also noted that grid electrification is going to disproportionately impact low- and middle-income (LMI) ratepayers, so businesses with LMI customers are increasingly investing in solar. “They want to find solutions up front so their LMI customers aren’t impacted.”
Market consolidation
JD Dillon, chief marketing officer at Tigo Energy, a supplier of solar components and software, sees 2025 as a year in which solar sector growth will be stronger than expected. However, similar to A.M. Batteries Shi’s prediction, Dillon believes there will be consolidation as “more companies will cease to exist up and down the supply chain, through M&A, bankruptcies, or exiting the market.” He said this is “natural and healthy for the industry, though painful for everyone involved.” High-quality companies will benefit, he said, adding that “quality is a term that applies equally to the physical solution, the software component, the financial stability, the operational capabilities, and the sales practices.”
Explosive growth in manufacturing
Alex Zhu, founder and CEO of ES Foundry, a South Carolina-based startup that plans to produce both solar cells and modules, believes the U.S. will see explosive growth in solar manufacturing because of the IRAs domestic content bonus.
“Although module manufacturing has been announced, many companies are still relying on foreign manufacturers for solar cell production,” Zhu said. However, he believes 2025 will be a turning point. “2025 is the year that the American people will really start to see the benefits of federal and state investments in the solar industry, and I can’t wait.” |
