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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry. FOB China : The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, remained stable this week at $0.087/W free on board (FOB) China, with price indications between $0.083-$0.095/W. The module market remains stagnant as the industry digests the impact of the “self-regulation agreement” recently signed by more than 30 Chinese solar companies, which aims to stabilise prices by controlling supply. “Most module makers are likely to be operating at 50-70% now, down from 80% last year. Weak demand continues to push prices down,” said one producer. Despite these efforts, prices have shown little sign of recovery. One of the five largest module producers told OPIS that “strong sales pressure” and the need to clear old stocks prevent any significant price increases, at least until the first half of 2025. Although manufacturers are encouraged to operate at reduced capacity in the coming months, market sentiment indicates that high inventory levels and lower turnover may continue to keep prices low. DDP Europ a: TOPCon module prices rose by another 1.00%. OPIS assessed the average price at €0.099 ($0.102)/W, with indications ranging from a low of €0.075/W to a high of €0.115/W for Tier 1 panels. According to the sources, weak European demand for modules and strong sales in recent months have added downward pressure on prices. However, they expect a slight rebound in DDP Europe panel prices by the end of December. Freight rates published by Freightos for the China/East Asia-Northern Europe shipping route decreased by 5.13% to $5.051 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). This corresponds to $0.00126/W. US DDP : Prices are holding steady this week, with OPIS continuing to value the spot price for utility-scale TOPCon DPP US modules at $0.285/W. Forecasts call for a price of $0.293/W for Q1 2025 and $0.282/W for Mono PERC modules in the same delivery period. Developers are still rushing to close out module inventory before the new year in order to protect their projects’ eligibility for the ITC in 2024, fearing changes to the incentive under the new Trump administration. One source noted that any company placing orders in the coming weeks will also need to receive them within three and a half months. A distributor source said it is moving inventory quickly, but said that if an ITC change is approved next year, developers should have until the new tax code takes effect — potentially later in the year — to safeguard their projects’ eligibility for 2025. Price increases related to the DOC’s late November anti-dumping preliminary ruling continue to dominate market conversations. A distributor source told OPIS that its customer received an offer of around $0.41/W for first-quarter delivery of utility-scale TOPCon modules from a supplier subject to a high cash deposit rate. While non-taxed companies are widely expected to raise prices as well to take advantage of the situation, some sources are skeptical. One major developer said there is enough operational capacity outside the four taxed countries – and in the US – to cover about 40 GW of annual demand. And with most major suppliers already planning to open cell factories outside the region, the difficulties are likely to be short-lived. One distributor told OPIS that he had seen a few cents rise in prices in Indonesia and Laos, but given that prices before the preliminary rulings were in the 10-20 cent range, it was not much. |
