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Temperatures could reach around 2°C above the climatic average and should contribute to an increase in solar radiation in most of Brazil. While solar systems in the Northeast could approach their maximum efficiency, the South will have less favorable conditions due to cloudiness.
High-precision meteorology company Tempo OK has published a new study on the climate scenario for the Brazilian summer, which officially begins on December 21, 2024, at 06:21 (Brasilia time), with the summer solstice. The outlook points to a typical seasonal climate, but some nuances will need to be taken into account. For renewable energy generation, while wind generation will be affected, there will be an increase in the incidence of solar radiation in most of Brazil. While solar systems in the northeast will be able to approach their maximum efficiency, the south will have less favorable conditions due to cloudiness.
Summer is a favorable period for solar photovoltaic generation, due to the increased incidence of solar radiation in most of Brazil. In the Northeast region, solar systems tend to approach their maximum efficiency, especially in the sertão areas, which will have less cloud cover and high radiation intensity. In the Southeast and Center-West, although the frequency of rainfall is higher, especially in the afternoons, sunny periods between morning and early afternoon will ensure high productivity of photovoltaic systems. The South will have less favorable conditions especially between December and January, due to cloud cover, but will have reasonable conditions for solar generation in the second half of the season.
Although photovoltaics should benefit, winds face limitations. The summer months will be characterized by fast-moving cold fronts, especially over the ocean, which directly influences the wind potential of the different regions of Brazil.
In the South, wind power generation will be disadvantaged, as the strongest winds will continue to be concentrated in the ocean, far from the areas with the greatest potential for exploitation on land. The absence of prolonged systems on the continent also limits the intensity and regularity of winds in the region. In the Northeast, weather conditions may also pose challenges, especially in the months of February and March: the proximity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – driven by the occurrence of frequent rains and the warming of the waters of the Equatorial Atlantic – should reduce the consistency of the trade winds, affecting power generation in several areas. “Constant meteorological monitoring will play a strategic role so that generators can optimize the use of wind potential during this period,” says Paulo Lombardi, Meteorology Specialist for Wind Generation at Tempo OK.
According to Tempo OK meteorologist Luiz Fernando dos Santos, the warming of the North Atlantic waters is bringing more energy to the atmosphere and should promote humidity in Brazil, but also intensify episodes of high temperatures, intense showers and instability in several regions of Brazil.
The temperature could be around 2°C above the historical average, which covers the period from 1991 to 2020, but temperatures will be milder than last summer, which was one of the hottest ever recorded in Brazil. The greatest anomalies will be recorded in the central-northern part of the country. Precipitation could also exceed the historical average, especially in central-southern Brazil, but should be irregular, alternating with periods of sunshine and heat.
The season begins with sunny days and positive temperature anomalies, especially in the Northeast. The South and part of the Southeast, on the other hand, will have to face a rainier period as a result of the influence of transient systems, areas of instability that bring frequent rainfall, especially in the first half of the season. "In the other regions, the alternation of sun and rain should keep maximum temperatures close to the climatological average on most days," explains Luiz Fernando.
Throughout the season, there will be a change in humidity. “After January 20, central-northern Brazil will begin to present favorable conditions for rain,” says the meteorologist. Between February and March, precipitation should shift northwards, with above-average accumulations, especially in the interior of Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso, the interior of the Northeast, Tocantins and southern Pará.
La Niña is not yet confirmed
The equatorial Pacific, which was cooling slightly last month, will continue to do so in the coming months, maintaining a weak La Niña condition until March, meaning that even if the phenomenon takes shape now in December, it will not last long and will therefore have little influence on rainfall conditions in Brazil. The waters of the Atlantic Ocean will be primarily responsible for rainfall in the country. “The temperature of the North Tropical Atlantic is warmer, but with a milder pattern, which favors the return of humidity to the interior of Brazil, due to the approach of the ITCZ. The higher temperatures in the Atlantic off the coast of the Southeast and the east coast of the Northeast, especially in eastern Bahia, favor rainfall in these regions, as they act as a local source of humidity when instabilities approach these regions,” says Luiz Fernando.
Despite the predominance of sunshine, high humidity favours the formation of traditional late afternoon showers: sudden and brief formations, but with a high potential to cause significant disruption. For this reason, the population is advised to seek shelter when seeing dense clouds and avoid unprotected or flooded areas. In the event of flooding and falling trees, it is important to stay away from the power grid. |
