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With 18 GW of modules imported by October, according to a study by Greener, Brazil has already surpassed the 17.8 GW reached in 2022, the highest annual volume so far. Distributed generation projects have increased their share.
A Greener survey shows that by October the domesticated volume of modules had already exceeded the total amount for 2023, at 18.2 GW. The consultancy estimates that this figure will reach 22 GW by the end of 2024.
Brazils PV module imports in 2023 totaled 17.5 GW, a small drop of 1.7% compared to the 17.8 GW imported the previous year, the highest level recorded so far. In 2022, there was a 70% increase in imports compared to 2021 (10.4 GW).
Increase distributed generation
The share of distributed generation (DG) in the volume of imported modules from January to October was 76%, with 13.7 GW of modules. In 2023, the segment had a share of 65% (11.4 GW of the 17.5 GW) at nationalization.
Centralised generation accounted for 24% of demand this year, or 4.4 GW of imported modules in 2024 through October. In 2023, the large-scale power segment demanded 6.1 GW of modules.
Higher import taxes and end of quotas
The potential impact of the end of import quotas and the increase in the tax rate on module imports could materialize as early as the first quarter of 2025. The Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (Absolar) estimates that the increase in the import tax on panels could affect 25 GW of centralized projects .
The increase in the Import Tax (II) on photovoltaic modules from 9.6% to 25% is expected to lead to an increase of more than 8% in the Capex of centralized generation projects , according to the consulting firm Greener. The increase in the II was defined by Gecex Resolution No. 666 of November 12, 2024 of the Executive Management Committee of the Chamber of Foreign Trade.
Importers of modules will be exempt from this tax through a quota of around 1,014,790,000 dollars until June 30, 2025 or while the balance lasts. The import quotas, however, had already been used up to 55.6% of their value by November 9, 2024.
Initially, the federal government had determined two further quota periods for importers, gradually shortened until 2027, but these new periods were cancelled. This measure, together with the increase in the import tax rate, is part of the federal governments effort to encourage local industry in various segments. However, the assessment is that these actions are not sufficient to make domestic panel production competitive and, faster than initially anticipated, could hamper market growth. |
