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Prices across the solar supply chain remained in bearish territory in the fourth quarter of 2024. Trade and regulatory developments have continued to concern the industry and have slowed business activity. By Hanwei Wu .
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the benchmark OPIS price for polysilicon produced outside China, fell from $22,567/kg on September 3, 2024 to $22,068/kg on November 5, 2024.
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark for FOB (free on board, or excluding shipping costs) Chinese modules, fell from $0.095/W to $0.087/W over the same period. Prices for modules supplied to Europe and the United States also fell (see charts). The US Department of Commerce’s (DOC) announcement on October 1 of its preliminary decision on countervailing duties on solar imports from Southeast Asia was undoubtedly the most talked-about event in recent weeks. According to the Department, certain manufacturers in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have benefited from subsidies ranging from 0.14% to 292.61%.
For unspecified companies, the DOC set the following subsidy percentages by country: 8.25% for Cambodia, 9.13% for Malaysia, 23.06% for Thailand, and 2.85% for Vietnam .
All of these rates were largely in line with market expectations. Some industry players considered the preliminary rates slightly lower than they had anticipated, but warned that it would be premature to consider this a sudden boost to prices and trading activity. Another preliminary antidumping ruling in early December 2024 provided a more definitive signal to buyers considering their purchase volumes.
American Made
Meanwhile, policies for domestic solar manufacturing in the United States continued to look favorable. During the months of October and November 2024, the Treasury Department clarified that solar ingots and wafers can be considered semiconductor manufacturing, making them eligible for the 25% Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit. The department also published regulations allowing for tax deduction claims covered by the 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit, which insiders see as a boon to supporting new solar manufacturing projects in the country.
These positive developments, coupled with the spectre of additional import tariffs, were enough to keep the module forward market in slight contango (meaning future prices are expected to be higher than current spot prices) through June 2025. The spot price for delivered duty paid (DPP) tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules in the US market was $0.285/W on November 5, 2024. By June 2025, the price stands at $0.297/Wp, according to the OPIS forward curve, implying expectations of improving market conditions in the US going forward.
However, the FOB China TOPCon forward market remained in a slight decline, implying expectations that export market conditions will not improve in the near term. The spot price of FOB China TOPCon modules was $0.087/W as of November 5, 2024, with the June 2025 forward price at $0.086/W, according to the OPIS forward curve.
China’s solar industry has faced a hostile business environment abroad and fierce price competition at home. In October 2024, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) responded by announcing that it would release an estimate of the cost of producing PV modules to urge producers to avoid bidding below cost in large-scale procurement tenders in the domestic market.
The association estimated the production cost of n-type M10 bifacial modules (182 mm x 182 mm), excluding depreciation and taxes on major upstream materials such as polysilicon, wafers and cells, at 0.68 yuan ($0.09)/W as of October 2024.
That same month, a state tender had attracted the lowest bids for positive-doped modules, p-type and n-type, at 0.66 yuan/W.
Chinese manufacturers said the CPIA guidelines help set an implicit minimum price for tender offers, even though they are not legally binding. They also noted, however, that these guidelines only relate to state tenders and not to export orders.
With Chinese polysilicon prices stabilising since early October 2024, and module prices in relentless decline, the cost of Chinese Mono Premium (CMP) polysilicon has been on the rise. CMP is the OPIS assessment of unblended polysilicon used for n-type ingot mining, measured against ex-warehouse prices of Chinese domestic modules. In August 2024, it stood at 11% of the ex-warehouse price of Chinese domestic modules, and in November 2024, it rose to 13% per watt.
The global solar industry is facing more regulatory and trade hurdles. New subsidy allegations from petitioners have prompted the DOC to investigate “cross-border” supply of silver paste and solar glass in Southeast Asia. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, who made raising import tariffs a cornerstone of his re-election campaign, also looks set to keep the solar industry on edge from the chain reaction of escalating protectionism. |
