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A new report from CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) confirms that firmed renewables are the most affordable option for modernizing Australia’s energy grid, while nuclear energy faces escalating costs and lengthy construction timelines.
Renewables Outpace Nuclear in Affordability
According to the GenCost report, renewable energy sources, including the costs of storage, transmission, and firming, remain the most economical electricity generation option. By 2030, firmed renewables are projected to cost between $80 and $122 per megawatt-hour (MWh), compared to nuclear energy estimates ranging from $145 to $238/MWh for large-scale reactors expected to be operational by 2040.
Small modular nuclear reactors, if hypothetically operational by 2030, could cost up to $487/MWh, not accounting for additional “first-of-a-kind” premiums.
Renewable Technology Costs Declining
Despite global inflationary pressures, the cost of renewable energy technologies continues to decline:
Large-scale battery costs dropped by 20%.
Utility-scale solar fell by 8%.
Onshore wind costs, which rose by 8% last year, increased by just 2% this year.Challenges for Nuclear Energy
The report highlights significant barriers for nuclear energy in Australia:
Extended Timelines: Nuclear projects in democracies face average construction timelines of 17–21 years. Under these conditions, large-scale nuclear reactors would not produce power in Australia before the 2040s.
High Costs: Even with operational lifespans of 60 years, nuclear energy remains substantially more expensive than renewables due to refurbishment, maintenance, and limited economic benefits to electricity customers.
Expert Criticism of Nuclear Plans
GenCost addressed claims that nuclear reactors’ capacity factors and longer lifespans would make them more cost-competitive. The analysis found these factors have minimal impact on overall costs.
Government Response
Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, criticized nuclear proposals, stating:
“The latest GenCost confirms that renewables, supported by storage and firming, are the most affordable path to reliable energy. Promoting costly nuclear energy is not a serious solution for today’s energy challenges.” |
