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Researchers from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems have analyzed the techno-economic potential of importing hydrogen to Germany from Brazil, Morocco, Canada, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates.
Germanys Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) has created a global hydrogen potential atlas to establish sustainable locations for future hydrogen production.
The atlas was created under the umbrella of the HyPat project and is based on techno-economic analyses of potential locations for green hydrogen production and the export of Power-to-X products. Using the H2ProSim tool, the team analyzed the import of five Power-to-X products – liquid hydrogen, ammonia, liquid organic hydrogen carriers, methanol and Fischer-Tropsch products – by ship.
The costs-analysis covered imports along the value chain from Brazil, Morocco, Canada, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the social and economic characteristics of each country. It considered import costs of around €3.50 ($3.72)/kg to €6.50/kg of hydrogen possible in 2030, to €4.50/kg in 2050.
The researchers found hydrogen production accounts for the highest share of the costs, ranging between two thirds to three quarters of total costs, while the cost share of synthesis, storage and transportation varied according to the product and production volume. They also found most of the analyzed countries can realize costs at a comparable level, with the cost-effectiveness of transporting by ship or pipeline varying between countries.
They also identified ammonia as the most promising candidate among the Power-to-X products, leading to a recommendation that ammonia should be promoted as the easiest and cheapest product to realize in the short to medium term. They added that the development of liquid hydrogen technologies, which is not yet available on the market, should be accelerated, after it emerged as the most cost-effective option for importing pure hydrogen by ship in the long term.
The research also highlights that hydrogen-exporting countries will benefit from the trade as the required installations for hydrogen production will help facilitate a faster energy transition and lower electricity costs. This is as long as an increase in export volumes does not exhaust renewable energy potential of the exporting country and cause electricity prices to increase, the researchers warn.
“We therefore recommend addressing the potential effects on the local energy transition with the exporting countries at an early stage to avoid misguided developments during the infrastructure expansion,” said Ombeni Ranzmeyer, one of the studys authors from Fraunhofer ISE. “For some countries, upper limits on export volumes have become clear and these should be taken into account.”
With this in mind, the research team also recommends that countries that are able to move quickly to defossilize their industry and energy sector are prioritized as export countries. |
