| Work Detail |
In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was valued this week at $21.130/kg, or $0.048/W, unchanged from the previous week.
On November 29, the US announced preliminary results of anti-dumping investigations on cells and modules from four southeastern countries, which are considered a critical factor for global polysilicon sales. AD rates range from 0% to 271.28%, varying by country and manufacturer, with most companies assigned specific tariff rates between 50% and 90%.
Buyers and sellers in the global polysilicon market remain uncertain about what to make of the upcoming developments. Several major buyers stress the need to monitor market conditions before revising their cautious approach to purchases, indicating that the current market sluggishness is likely to continue.
Opportunities lie in the dynamics between module supply to the U.S. and the corresponding end users, one buyer said. While reduced imports and rising costs from four Southeast Asian countries could push up U.S. module prices, a key question is how much of this price increase can be absorbed by U.S. solar developers, and to what extent it can offset the 201, CVD and AD tariffs.
Amid the current uncertainty, global polysilicon vendors have stressed the importance of prioritizing in-depth visits to customers to gain first-hand knowledge of their current circumstances and future plans.
However, the upcoming addition of new cell production capacities in countries such as Laos, Indonesia, Oman, India and the US over the next year could create a pathway for wafers from Southeast Asia, thereby contributing to a more favourable outlook for global polysilicon.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment for monograde polysilicon prices in the country, held steady at 33 yuan ($4.55)/kg, or 0.074 yuan/W this week. China Mono Premium, OPIS’s price assessment for monograde polysilicon used for the production of N-type ingots, also held steady at 39.375 yuan/kg, or 0.089 yuan/W, unchanged from the previous week.
Although polysilicon transaction prices have remained stable this week, reports indicate that exceptionally low bids have emerged. Some second- and third-tier manufacturers, which have outstanding debts with raw material suppliers, are using polysilicon as a form of payment, resulting in raw material suppliers selling the polysilicon they receive at 5% to 10% below usual prices.
Chinese polysilicon manufacturers are further reducing output, with total output in December expected to fall below 90,000 tonnes, down significantly from around 130,000 tonnes in November. In addition, one major manufacturer, with a production capacity of 650,000 tonnes for the first half of 2024, is expected to produce only around 20,000 tonnes in December, reflecting an operating rate of less than 50%.
Experts expect polysilicon prices to continue to fall in December, driven by year-end discounts that manufacturers typically offer to boost cash flow, especially this year due to the major recession and sustained losses. These discounts help cover year-end financial obligations such as bank interest, supplier payments and employee compensation.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report . |
