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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was valued this week at $21.652/kg, or $0.049/W, down 1.89% from the previous week.
The prolonged lack of strong demand caused by trade barriers has put downward pressure on prices. Sources say that the stagnation in global spot polysilicon trade in recent months, coupled with the non-renewal of long-term offtake agreements that have expired, has caused global polysilicon stocks to rise to almost 10,000 mt.
This build-up has led to prices in recent monthly long-term contract orders falling below the formula-based rates set out in these agreements, with some orders priced between $2 and $3/kg lower than last month.
Wafer production in the four Southeast Asian countries, which currently constitute the world’s largest polysilicon sales market but may face US anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) measures on solar cells and modules , is showing limited activity. The largest active ingot plant in these regions is operating at only 4 GW of capacity, while the remaining plants have capacities below 2 GW or have completely suspended operations. Earlier this year, the region was said to reach a wafer production capacity of about 35 GW by the end of 2024.
In terms of new capacities, a Chinese polysilicon manufacturer recently announced a partnership with a local oil company to build a 150,000-ton polysilicon production plant in Angola, exceeding the 100,000-ton and 120,000-ton capacities previously announced by two other Chinese polysilicon producers for projects in the Middle East.
Insiders acknowledge that the project may face long lead times due to significant funding and technology demands, but highlight the company’s rapid growth – it reached 150,000 mt capacity in China by late 2023 despite being founded in 2021. The company’s stalled 100,000 mt polysilicon expansion project in China, originally scheduled for completion in August 2024, has sparked speculation in the industry that resources are being redirected towards overseas expansion, potentially boosting the viability of the Angola project.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment for monograde polysilicon prices in the country, declined slightly by 1.49% week-on-week to 33.125 yuan ($4.58)/kg, or 0.075 yuan/W this week. Similarly, China Mono Premium, OPIS’s price assessment for monograde polysilicon used in the production of n-type ingots, saw a slight decline of 0.31% from the previous week, standing at 39.625 yuan/kg, or 0.089 yuan/W.
Industry consensus points to rising polysilicon stocks and a deteriorating supply-demand balance. While Chinas polysilicon output is expected to fall to 120,000-130,000 mt in November, significant output cuts by wafer companies mean their polysilicon needs will be less than 90,000 mt in the month. Experts say that, excluding the additional monthly production, existing inventory could sustain wafer production for more than a quarter.
An OPIS survey indicates that the average operating rate of the Chinese polysilicon market has fallen below 50%, with notable differences in production levels among manufacturers. Major polysilicon producers Siemens and granular polysilicon FBR are reportedly operating at over 70% of capacity, while two other major polysilicon producers Siemens are operating at around 30%. Meanwhile, some smaller factories and those with lower n-type polysilicon output have largely halted production.
Experts suggest that Chinese polysilicon manufacturers are unlikely to reach 100% of their operating capacity in the next year due to severe overcapacity. As a result, some large polysilicon companies are considering layoffs as a cost-saving measure to better match their actual operating rates. |
