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TotalEnergies released its Energy Outlook 2024, presenting three new scenarios exploring the future of global energy demand and system evolution up to 2050. This publication, the sixth in its series, provides insights into the impact of various policy paths on energy transition, especially concerning carbon emissions and climate targets.
The report introduces a new scenario, “Trends,” which represents the current energy trajectory of countries through 2030. This scenario considers recent advancements in decarbonization technologies, such as solar, wind, electric vehicles, and heat pumps. However, it highlights limitations due to infrastructure constraints and geopolitical tensions, resulting in a projected temperature rise of 2.6 to 2.7°C by 2100, exceeding the Paris Agreement’s goals.
In addition to the “Trends” scenario, TotalEnergies revisits two other pathways: “Momentum” and “Rupture.” The “Momentum” scenario integrates decarbonization strategies of net-zero 2050 (NZ50) nations and the climate pledges of others. This scenario assumes partial electrification, a phase-out of coal in NZ50 regions, and a more extensive use of natural gas as a transition fuel. Despite these measures, the “Momentum” path forecasts a 2.2 to 2.3°C temperature increase by 2100, still above the ideal target.
On the other hand, the “Rupture” scenario outlines an ambitious decarbonization pathway aimed at limiting temperature rise to below 2°C, predicting a range of 1.7 to 1.8°C by the century’s end. This scenario requires a dramatic acceleration in renewable energy deployment and advanced technologies, alongside global cooperation. Achieving “Rupture” would entail an 80% increase in solar and wind capacity in emerging economies like India by 2030, as well as widespread deployment of low-carbon technologies such as decarbonized hydrogen and sustainable fuels.
The report stresses that to accommodate the energy needs of a growing global population, especially in developing countries, energy access must increase significantly. Currently, about 4.5 billion people have limited access to energy, impacting essential services such as healthcare and education. TotalEnergies forecasts that by 2050, less developed regions will require four times their current energy capacity to meet growing demands sustainably.
In its commentary, TotalEnergies emphasizes the necessity of prioritizing mature, cost-effective decarbonization technologies and strengthening international cooperation to provide affordable solutions globally. This would involve policy adjustments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without compromising energy accessibility and economic growth, particularly in emerging markets.
The main messages of the TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024 are as follows:
Energy Access & Human Development: Reliable, affordable energy is crucial for human development but remains unequally distributed globally.
Past 20 Years:
Global energy transition has begun.
Energy demand growth largely driven by rising living standards.
U.S. shale revolution reshaped the energy landscape.
Some decarbonization technologies are mature and beginning deployment.
2050 Scenarios:
Trends: Follows current trajectories, projecting a +2.6-2.7°C rise by 2100 (above Paris targets).
Momentum: Assumes net-zero 2050 commitments, projecting a +2.2-2.3°C rise by 2100.
Rupture: Aims for a +1.7-1.8°C rise by 2100 through rapid global deployment of decarbonization technologies, with support for the Global South.
Green Electrification: Key to transition; lowers emissions and system losses (from 60% today to ~40% in Rupture).
Pathway from Trends to Rupture: Pragmatic global deployment of cost-effective decarbonization technologies, focusing on:
Substituting electricity for fossil fuels (e.g., EVs, heat pumps).
Replacing coal with renewables and flexible gas in power generation.
Reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production.
Policy Recommendations:
Allocate subsidies and mandates to optimize cost-effectiveness and build public support.
Remove infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in electricity grids.
Strengthen international cooperation for affordable tech deployment and financing in developing countries. |
