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PV InfoLink says Chinese solar demand will reach between 240 GW and 260 GW this year, while European demand will be between 77 GW and 85 GW. Doubts are being raised about the policies to be implemented by the new US president-elect, Donald Trump.
As the global energy shift progresses, PV InfoLink forecasts solar demand to reach 469-533 GW in 2024. However, key markets – China, the US, Europe and India – face supply-demand imbalances, political changes and economic volatility that could reshape installation demand and weigh on growth beyond 2025.
As installations ramp up, critical network upgrades are delayed, and rising interest rates and supply chain instability are cutting into profits.
The US solar market faces rising tariffs on imported cells and anti-dumping duties on Southeast Asian suppliers. Developers remain cautious due to high interest rates, political uncertainty and slow permitting, while California’s NEM 3.0 policy also hurts the profitability of distributed solar. US solar demand in 2025 is estimated at between 38 GW and 44 GW.
“Given the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ repeated opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) , renewable energy subsidies under the IRA face further uncertainty if Trump is elected,” Jenny Lin, PV research associate at InfoLink, told pv magazine .
As is well known, Donald Trump has emerged victorious in the presidential elections held on Tuesday of last week . On the one hand, some analysts argue that the strong results of the clean energy policies implemented by the Biden administration will be mostly maintained. On the other hand, a recent report by Bloomberg Intelligence sees these policies potentially under threat, but rather than dismantling them unilaterally, changes could be made with targeted cuts.
It should also be noted that since the positive result for the Republican candidate became known, solar stocks, measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), have plummeted , a trend that has not yet changed.
China’s utility-scale solar sector is facing delays due to slow grid expansion in Inner Mongolia and storage requirements affecting the profitability of distributed projects. Chinese solar demand is expected to remain between 240 GW and 260 GW in 2024, with a slight increase to 245 GW and 265 GW in 2025.
Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act and Critical Raw Materials Act aim to boost local green technology but may inflate project costs, while the planned Forced Labour Regulation could trigger EU investigations into Chinese suppliers in 2027. Economic tensions and limited grid capacity continue to weigh on the European solar market, forecast at 77 GW to 85 GW by 2024, with the potential to reach 85 GW to 93 GW by 2025.
India, one of the world’s top five solar markets, is relying on government projects to meet its ambitious 2026 solar installation targets. Government initiatives could boost 2025 demand to 25 GW or 35 GW, representing 25% to 40% growth. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) will require local modules for government projects in 2026. Import duties on Chinese cells remain at 25%, with domestic production expected to gradually replace Chinese imports as capacity grows.
Global solar markets are exhibiting complex supply and demand dynamics, with module prices near historic lows. Future growth depends on installation capacity and policy support. Emerging markets such as Brazil, South Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are seeing rising demand, while countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam are implementing supportive policies. In Africa, large-scale projects are continuing despite infrastructure and grid issues that may limit installations until 2025.
Although global growth may slow down after 2025, emerging markets provide an essential impetus, supporting the stable development of the solar industry worldwide. |
