| Work Detail |
International Petroleum Corporation (IPC or the Corporation) (TSX, Nasdaq Stockholm: IPCO) today released its financial and operational results and related management’s discussion and analysis (MD&A) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024.
William Lundin, IPCs President and Chief Executive Officer, comments: “We are pleased to announce another positive quarter of operational performance. IPC achieved average net daily production during the third quarter of 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), following planned maintenance shutdowns during the quarter. We also continue to purchase IPC common shares under the normal course issuer bid (NCIB). We have now almost completed the 2023/2024 NCIB, reducing the outstanding number of common shares by over 6% since the beginning of December 2023. We intend to seek Toronto Stock Exchange approval to renew the NCIB in December 2024. We are also pleased to report on the progress achieved at the Blackrod Phase 1 development in Canada, which remains on schedule and on budget.”
Q3 2024 Business Highlights
- Average net production of approximately 45,000 boepd for Q3 2024, in line with guidance (49% heavy crude oil, 17% light and medium crude oil and 34% natural gas).(1)
- Successful completion of planned maintenance shutdowns at Onion Lake Thermal (OLT) in Canada and the Bertam field in Malaysia.
- Drilling activity at the Suffield area in Canada continued with four wells drilled in Q3 2024 and completed by October 2024.
- Development activities on Phase 1 of the Blackrod project continue to progress on schedule and on budget, with forecast first oil in late 2026.
- 2.6 million IPC common shares purchased and cancelled during Q3 2024 under IPC’s normal course issuer bid (NCIB), on track to complete the 2023/2024 NCIB during November 2024.
- IPC plans to seek Toronto Stock Exchange approval for the renewal of the NCIB in December 2024.
Q3 2024 Financial Highlights
- Operating costs per boe of USD 17.9 for Q3 2024, below guidance.(3)
- Operating cash flow (OCF) and Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) of MUSD 73 and MUSD 68 respectively in line with guidance for Q3 2024.(3)
- Capital and decommissioning expenditures of MUSD 102 for Q3 2024, in line with guidance. Free cash flow (FCF) for Q3 2024 amounted to MUSD -38 (MUSD 44 pre-Blackrod Phase 1 project funding).(3)
- Gross cash of MUSD 299 and net debt of MUSD 157 as at September 30, 2024.(3)
- Net result of MUSD 23 for Q3 2024.
Reserves and Resources
- Total 2P reserves as at December 31, 2023 of 468 MMboe, with a reserves life index (RLI) of 27 years.(1)(2)
- Contingent resources (best estimate, unrisked) as at December 31, 2023 of 1,145 MMboe.(1)(2)
2024 Annual Guidance
- Full year 2024 average net production guidance range maintained at 46,000 to 48,000 boepd.(1)
- Full year 2024 operating costs guidance revised to below USD 18 per boe.(3)
- Full year 2024 OCF guidance estimated at between MUSD 335 and 342, assuming Brent USD 70 to 80 per barrel for the remainder of 2024.(3)
- Full year 2024 capital and decommissioning expenditures guidance forecast maintained at MUSD 437.
- Full year 2024 FCF guidance estimated at between MUSD -140 and -133 (between MUSD 222 and 229 pre-Blackrod Phase 1 project funding), assuming Brent USD 70 to 80 per barrel for the remainder of 2024.(3)
Oil prices softened in the third quarter with Brent prices averaging USD 80 per barrel compared with USD 85 per barrel in the second quarter. Volatility during the quarter was high with Brent prices ranging from USD 89 per barrel in July to USD 70 per barrel in September. Notwithstanding the volatility in prices, the crude market was in a deficit through the third quarter, aided by the proactive supply management by the OPEC+ group. The continued conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine led to increased oil prices, though these were partially offset by concerns over global oil demand growth, in particular consumer and industrial demand in China. Despite some of these negative factors, the physical market remains tight with OECD crude stock levels below the five-year average, with oil demand expected to be at an all-time high in 2024 and continue to grow in 2025. Approximately 50% of IPC’s forecast 2024 oil production is hedged at USD 80 per barrel WTI or USD 85 per barrel Dated Brent through to the end of 2024.
The third quarter 2024 WTI to Western Canadian Select (WCS) price differentials averaged just under USD 14 per barrel, in line with the second quarter and approximately USD 5 per barrel lower than the first quarter differential average of USD 19 per barrel. The Trans Mountain expansion (TMX) pipeline continues to support tighter differentials with the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) now having excess spare pipeline capacity for the first time in more than a decade. Crude exports from the new TMX pipeline are flowing off the coast of British Columbia, with deliveries to the US West Coast and Asia creating new end destinations for Canadian heavy oil. Around 70% of our forecast 2024 Canadian WCS production volumes are hedged at a WTI/WCS differential of USD 15 per barrel.
Natural gas prices in Canada remained suppressed in the third quarter, with AECO pricing averaging CAD 0.67 per Mcf during the period, compared to CAD 1.17 per Mcf average for the second quarter. This has led to some Canadian natural gas producers curtailing production as western Canada gas storage levels continue to sit above the five-year range. IPC implemented hedges during the third quarter for approximately 14,500 Mcf per day at CAD 1.57 per Mcf from August to year end 2024.
Third Quarter 2024 Highlights and Full Year 2024 Guidance
IPC delivered average daily production rates of 45,000 boepd for the third quarter. The average daily production for the first nine months of 2024 was 47,400 boepd and the full year Capital Markets Day (CMD) production guidance of 46,000 to 48,000 boepd is maintained. During the third quarter, planned maintenance shutdowns at the Onion Lake Thermal (OLT) asset in Canada and at the Bertam field in Malaysia were successfully completed. High uptimes were achieved across all major producing assets in our portfolio during the quarter and the business benefited from the oil wells drilled within our Southern Alberta assets and the new wells brought on stream from sustaining Pad L at the OLT asset.(1)
Operating costs in the third quarter of 2024 were below forecast at USD 17.9 per boe. The lower costs were largely driven by lower energy input costs within our Canadian asset base. Full year 2024 operating costs guidance is revised to less than USD 18 per boe, below the CMD guidance range of USD 18 to 19 per boe.(3)
Operating cash flow (OCF) for the third quarter of 2024 was USD 73 million in line with forecast. Full year 2024 OCF guidance is revised to USD 335 to 342 million (assuming Brent USD 70 to 80 per barrel for the remainder of 2024).(3)
Capital and decommissioning expenditure for the third quarter was in line with plan at USD 102 million. Our full year 2024 capital and decommissioning expenditure guidance is unchanged at USD 437 million.
Free cash flow (FCF) was USD -38 million (or USD 44 million pre-Blackrod Phase 1 development funding) during the third quarter of 2024. Full year 2024 FCF guidance is revised to USD -140 to -133 million (or USD 222 to 229 million pre-Blackrod Phase 1 development funding) assuming Brent USD 70 to 80 per barrel for the remainder of 2024.(3)
Net debt was increased during the third quarter of 2024 by approximately USD 69 million to USD 157 million.(3) This is due to the growth capital expenditure at the Blackrod Phase 1 project and continued funding of the normal course issuer bid (NCIB) share repurchase program. The gross cash position as at September 30, 2024 was USD 299 million. In the third quarter, IPC enhanced its financing position by entering into a letter of credit facility in Canada to cover all of its existing operational letters of credit, giving full availability under IPC’s undrawn CAD 180 million Revolving Credit Facility.
With a robust balance sheet and strong cashflow generation from the producing assets, IPC is strongly positioned to deliver on our three strategic pillars of organic growth, shareholder returns and pursue value-adding M&A.
Blackrod Phase 1 Project
The Blackrod asset is 100% owned by IPC and hosts the largest booked reserves and contingent resources within the IPC portfolio. After more than a decade of pilot operations, subsurface delineation and commercial engineering studies, IPC sanctioned the Phase 1 development in the first quarter of 2023. The Phase 1 development targets 218 MMboe of 2P reserves, with a multi-year forecast capital expenditure of USD 850 million to first oil planned in late 2026. The Phase 1 development is planned for plateau production of 30,000 bopd which is expected by early 2028.(1)(2)
2024 marks a peak investment year at the Blackrod Phase 1 project for IPC, with USD 362 million planned to be spent in the year. Project progress has advanced according to plan, with approximately USD 245 million spent through the first nine months of 2024. All major third-party contracts have been executed, including but not limited to, the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreements for the central processing facility (CPF) and well pad facilities, midstream agreements for the input fuel gas, diluent and oil blend pipelines, and drilling rig and stakeholder agreements. All major long lead items have been procured and pre-operations onboarding continues as the asset undergoes rapid change from a pilot steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operation to a commercial SAGD operation. IPC’s core operational philosophy is to responsibly develop and commission projects with the staff that are going to manage and operate the asset to ensure the seamless transition from development to operations.
As at the end of the third quarter of 2024, over half of the Blackrod Phase 1 development capital had been spent since the project sanction in early 2023. All major work streams are progressing as planned and the focus continues to be on executing the detailed sequencing of events as facility modules are safely delivered and installed at site. The total Phase 1 project guidance of USD 850 million capital expenditure to first oil in late 2026 is unchanged. IPC intends to fund the remaining Blackrod Phase 1 development costs with forecast cash flow generated by its operations and cash on hand.
Stakeholder Returns: Normal Course Issuer Bid
Under the current 2023/2024 NCIB, IPC has the ability to repurchase up to approximately 8.3 million common shares over the period of December 5, 2023 to December 4, 2024. IPC repurchased and cancelled approximately 7.5 million common shares up to the end of September 2024. The average price of common shares purchased under the 2023/2024 NCIB was SEK 132 / CAD 17 per share. IPC expects to complete the 2023/2024 NCIB during November 2024, resulting in the cancellation of 6.5% of the total number of common shares outstanding as at the beginning of December 2023.
As at September 30, 2024, IPC had a total of 120,751,038 common shares issued and outstanding and IPC held 30,000 common shares in treasury. As at October 31, 2024, IPC had a total of 120,244,638 common shares issued and outstanding and IPC held 44,400 common shares in treasury.
The IPC Board of Directors has approved, subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), the renewal of IPC’s NCIB for a further twelve months from December 2024 to December 2025. We expect that the 2024/2025 NCIB will permit IPC to purchase on the TSX and/or Nasdaq Stockholm, and cancel, up to a further approximately 7.5 million common shares, representing approximately 6.2% of the total outstanding common shares (or 10% of IPC’s “public float” under applicable TSX rules) following completion of the current 2023/2024 NCIB. IPC continues to believe that reducing the number of common shares outstanding while in parallel investing in material production growth at the Blackrod project will prove to be a winning formula for our stakeholders.
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Performance
As part of IPC’s commitment to operational excellence and responsible development, its objective is to reduce risk and eliminate hazards to prevent occurrence of accidents, ill health, and environmental damage, as these are essential to the success of our business operations. During the third quarter of 2024, IPC recorded no material safety or environmental incidents.
As previously announced, IPC targets a reduction of our net GHG emissions intensity by the end of 2025 to 50% of IPC’s 2019 baseline and IPC remains on track to achieve this reduction. During the first quarter of 2024, IPC announced the commitment to remain at end 2025 levels of 20 kg CO2/boe through to the end of 2028.(4) |
