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Montel Analytics says that solar production reached a record high in Europe during the third quarter of 2024. However, the company warns that rising solar and wind production, coupled with a lack of demand-side response, has led to an increase in negative and zero day-ahead prices across the continent.
Solar generated 94 TWh across the European electricity market during the third quarter of 2024, according to a report from Montel Analytics, an energy market intelligence specialist.
The result is the largest figure for solar generation on record, representing a 15% increase on the third quarter of 2023. The biggest contributors were Germany, Italy and Spain, which generated 24.8 TWh, 16.9 TWh, and 9.7 TWh of solar, respectively.
Wind generation recorded its second-best result on record during the third quarter of 2024, totaling 104.7 TWh. Renewables, consisting of solar, wind, biomass, hydro and waste, accounted for 50.8% of overall European power generation during the July-September period.
The remaining power generation was made up of nuclear, which saw its highest proportion of total generation on record at 25.3%, followed by gas (13.4%), coal/lignite (10.2%), and oil (0.3%).
Jean-Paul Harreman, director at Montel Analytics, said the rise in solar and wind generation is the continuation of a long-term trend in Europe. But he warned that in recent times, the continent has seen a massive oversupply of power from these sources, leading to more occurrences of negative prices.
The report says electricity demand across the third quarter totaled 692.3 TWh, a 3.1% increase on the same period a year earlier, but 0.7% and 4.8% below what was recorded in the third quarters of 2022 and 2021.
“As renewables displace conventional power during the solar peak, the demand for fossil fuel generation and imports has significantly widened the price gap between the solar peak and evening peak,” said Harreman.
In the third quarter of 2024, there were 337 negatively priced hours in Finland, 290 in Swedish electricity zones one to three, 217 across the Netherlands and 204 in Germany. Spain and Portugal have recorded more than 700 negatively priced hours so far this year.
“This trend is worrying for renewable developers as the hours with the lowest value are generally the hours that see the highest renewable generation,” explained Harreman.
Montel Analytics also said that gas prices remain an upward trend, with the average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price of €35.20 ($38.03)/MWh in the July-September period, marking an 11% rise on the average from the second quarter of this year.
The report said the increase has been driven by factors such as tensions in the Middle East, the potential disruption of Russian gas flows through Ukraine, ongoing maintenance at Norwegian gas fields, and Hurricane Beryl’s landfall in Texas. |
