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Two new publications released today by the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs) Consortium – a group of 26 multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs) – provide further insights on the level of credit risk in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) according to the investment experience of Consortium members.
The first publication covers the credit performance of lending to private and public counterparts. The average annual default rate of lending to private entities at 3.56% is broadly aligned with many non-investment grade firms in advanced economies, and the average recovery rate of 72.2% is higher than many global benchmarks.
Although the GEMs statistics reflect the unique experience of MDBs and DFIs, these results provide valuable information on the investment risk in EMDEs, an area characterized by a lack of available credit risk data.
The second publication provides default rates and - for the first time - recovery rates for sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending based on an expanded range of 40 years of data. Results shows an average annual default rate of 1.06% and an average recovery rate of 94.9% and complement the GEMs statistics on private and public counterparts to provide a comprehensive view on EMDEs credit risks.
These increasingly granular statistical publications by the GEMs Consortium address the call by the G20 and other stakeholders to provide investors greater insights into credit risks in emerging markets, thereby allowing them to better guide their asset allocations.
GEMs was established in 2009 as a bilateral initiative between the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group). Since then, the GEMs Consortium has grown to include 26 members: African Development Bank (AfDB), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB), Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement (BOAD), British International Investment (BII), Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB), Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank Group (EIB), GuarantCo, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Inter-American Investment Corporation (IDB Invest), International Finance Corporation (IFC), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO), U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), New Development Bank (NDB), Proparco, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), and Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA).
The history of Fabrica de Unt din Floresti, a dairy producer in northern Moldova, is rich with tradition and resilience. Founded in 1966, the factory had long been a pillar of the local community, producing high-quality dairy products. However, like many enterprises in post-Soviet countries, the factory faced severe challenges in the 1990s.
A new chapter
The early 2000s marked the beginning of a new chapter for the company. The current shareholders, including the Grigoras family, embarked on an ambitious plan to modernise and restructure the business.
"It was around 2016 when I first became closely acquainted with the company’s operations," Andrei Grigoras begins. A new generation had joined the company, bringing fresh perspectives and renewed energy. Among them was a young man who had spent a decade in the banking sector before returning to his roots to apply his knowledge and skills to the family business. That young man, of course, was Andrei himself.
A key factor in the company’s success was its unwavering commitment to tradition. "We continue to use special lactic acid bacteria for production, a practice that dates back to the Soviet era," Andrei explains. "This dedication to traditional methods, combined with the exclusive use of locally sourced Moldovan milk, ensures that our products have a unique and cherished flavour."
The location of the company has also contributed to its survival, despite the hardships of the past few decades. "While the rest of the country saw a steady decline in raw milk production, the farms in the north of the country continued to produce enough to keep the factory running and avoid the severe raw material shortages that plagued larger competitors.
But it hasn’t been without its difficulties. "The production is located in a remote village, far from major urban centres, and attracting skilled personnel was a constant struggle,” explains Andrei. And financing the necessary upgrades and expansions was another significant hurdle.
Despite these problems, they began to rebuild, slowly but confidently. "Our workforce swelled from a mere 30 employees to 240," Andrei notes. "It was a remarkable feat in such turbulent times."
"My father, Pavel Grigoras, is the General Director and has always been the backbone of the company," Andrei says with admiration. "Under his leadership, and with the help of the team, we began to tackle the challenges."
A game-changing partnership
A turning point came when Andrei and his team partnered with the EBRD and the European Union. "In 2019 we completed our first major project within the EBRD’s EU4Business Credit Line – a joint initiative of the two institutions," Andrei says. "The installation of a state-of-the-art milk cleaning and pasteurisation line from Germany was a game-changer. It improved the quality of our products and extended their shelf life, making them more appealing to retailers and reducing waste."
Inspired by the success of this project, the company undertook a second in 2021. "We installed a new line for packing dairy products in ultra-clean, closed-type bottles and acquired new equipment,” Andrei explains. “This has increased production and reduced costs, as it is way more energy efficient and productive. It has also significantly reduced the need for manual labour and allowed us to redeploy our workforce to more innovative and fulfilling tasks."
Adapting in a turbulent world
"After the Covid crisis and Russias aggression against our neighbours from Ukraine, I do not think that anyone in Moldova is ready to make plans for the long term. And therefore some large projects, either strategic, new markets or new developments in some areas, are postponed. Nevertheless, we remain committed to producing high-quality dairy products while continuously improving our operations," Andrei says. "Even in uncertain times, our dedication to our craft ensures that our products will continue to grace Moldovan tables for generations to come."
As Andrei Grigoras tells it, the story of Fabrica de Unt din Floresti is a testament to the power of tradition, innovation and resilience. "This journey has been as much about preserving our heritage as it has been about embracing the future," he reflects. "And that is what makes our story truly special." |
