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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , Solcast, a DNV company, reports that this winter has brought dry and warm conditions to most of South America, resulting in above-normal irradiance across the continent. Conditions have been particularly dry in the Amazon basin, favoring wildfire activity, and the resulting smoke has reduced solar irradiance along the plume path.
This winter has brought dry and warm conditions to most of South America, resulting in above-normal irradiance across the continent. Conditions have been particularly dry in the Amazon Basin, favoring wildfire activity, and the resulting smoke has reduced solar irradiance along the plume path, according to analysis using the Solcast API.
In August and September, many areas experienced significant increases in irradiance. Eastern and northern Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia, as well as the Caribbean states of Chile and Argentina, recorded irradiance levels more than 20% above climatic averages. These conditions were due to clear skies and favorable weather patterns, which boosted solar generation in regions not affected by smoke or haze.On the other hand, the Amazon basin continued to suffer from a prolonged winter drought, which exacerbated the frequency and intensity of wildfires. As smoke was carried across the continent by westerly winds, irradiance levels declined sharply in regions bordering the Amazon basin throughout the year. In addition, solar irradiance levels decreased sharply in regions bordering
the Amazon basin as far south as Brazil and Uruguay, with solar irradiance reduced by up to 20% in some areas. This trend is similar to last winter, when drought led to increased wildfire activity and the spread of smoke plumes.Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data confirm the alignment of aerosol concentrations with the negative anomalies observed in Solcast data.Closer to the Amazon, in Trinidad (Bolivia), irradiance levels dropped by more than 10% compared to the historical average. Porto Alegre and Asunción, cities located far from the Amazon fires but along the path of the smoke, were also affected, with clear-sky irradiance 6% and more than 5% lower than their August average, respectively.
As in the Amazon, California and Canada have seen multiple large-scale, record-breaking wildfires over the past 18 months. This is changing the way weather models use and understand the impact of aerosols on irradiance, making it more important to use high-resolution dynamical models
rather than relying on long-term climatological data as conditions are changing.
Solcast produces these figures by globally tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2 km resolution, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms . This data is used to drive irradiance models, allowing Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with a typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud tracking forecasts. This data is used by over 300 companies managing over 150 GW of solar assets worldwide. |
