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According to data provided by the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) on consumers who requested migration until January, 1.7 GW on average, out of 27,000 consumer units, would still migrate in 2024, with an average demand of approximately 200 kW. The Chamber of Commercialization of Electric Energy (CCEE) recorded more than 16,000 migrations to the free energy market until August. Migrations represent opportunities for companies operating in the photovoltaic sector.
According to data made available by Aneel updated to August 31, since January 2024, energy distributors have received 33,000 requests for migration to the free market, with an average contracted demand of 1,956 MW, with an average demand of 203 kW per consumption unit. Of these requests, 27,897 consumption units would migrate in 2024, totaling 1,717 MW of average demand.
Currently, free market consumers have an average energy consumption of 29,362 MW, according to the September bulletin of the Brazilian Association of Energy Traders (Abraceel), with 51,000 consumer units.
Since January, the Chamber of Electric Energy Marketing (CCEE) has registered 16,000 migrations, twice as many as in the whole of last year. The Chamber did not specify the contracted demand of these consumers.
According to the CCEE, 72.6% of new entrants in the free market are small and medium-sized businesses, such as bakeries, supermarkets, pharmacies and offices, which have adopted a retail contract model. In this model, consumers with up to 500 kW of demand negotiate their energy supply with a marketer who is responsible for representing them on the market and supporting them in the daily management of operations in the trading chamber.
Opportunities for solar energy in the free market
The expansion of centralized solar generation and the expansion of the free market are linked. The source will account for 57% of the new capacity added to meet private energy contracts in 2024, reaching shares above 80% in most of the coming years, according to a study by the Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy (Absolar) based on data from Aneel.
Among all the incentivised renewable sources, according to Abraceel, solar has the highest proportion of generated energy sold to the free market, with 82% of the generation sold in this environment, compared to 60% for SHP, 58% for wind and 73% for biomass thermal.
In addition to being an opportunity for large generators to market energy from new PV projects, the free market is also being more explored by distributed solar generation integrators. As part of a trend towards business diversification, integrators have increased their service offering in the free market, with 17% of them operating in this segment in 2024, up from 11% in 2023, according to Greener’s latest Distributed Generation Strategy Study. Representing retailers to attract free consumers remains the focus of integrators operating in this market in 2024. Of the study participants, 76% represented retailers, up from 68% in 2023.
Migration profile
According to the CCEE, which monitors 15 economic activities that are entering the free market, the Trade and Services sectors will lead migrations in 2024 and will be responsible for almost 50% of the total, followed by the Manufacturing and Food industries.
In the Services sector, condominiums (479 migrations) and hotels and similar (450) stand out. In commerce, supermarkets (1,248) and gas stations (619) lead the ranking. Within the diverse manufacturing industry, the most significant migrations occurred in the manufacture of plastic containers (396) and other plastic artifacts (203).
The Southeast leads the ranking of migrations to the free market, followed by the South and the Northeast. The states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Bahia, Santa Catarina, Pernambuco and Ceará are among the 10 that emigrated the most in 2024.
Most affected distributors
Five distributors account for almost half of the consumption of the consumer units that have requested migration to the free market since January, that is, 844 MW on average out of a total of 1,956 MW on average. CPFL Paulista, Copel, Enel São Paulo, Celesc and Cemig would have the largest volume of uncontracted energy considering the requests monitored by Aneel: |
