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According to the authors of the State of the Global Nuclear Industry Report 2024, by mid-year the world had 408 operational reactors producing 367 GW, a figure significantly lower than the forecasts for installed solar energy capacity by the end of the year and five times lower than the accumulated photovoltaic capacity in the world, which is already close to 2 TW.
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) 2024 , overseen by French nuclear energy consultancy Mycle Schneider, shows that installed photovoltaic capacity worldwide has now surpassed that of nuclear power by almost five times.
“The role of an annual report like the WNISR is to identify pre-existing trends that have continued into the previous year and potential developments that are either breakaways from previous trends or simply exceptional events,” the report’s lead author Mycle Schneider told pv magazine . “In addition, the WNISR attempts to identify developments that otherwise receive little attention.”
He also said that the WNISR confirms the trends of recent years as regards key indicators: nuclear production increased slightly in 2023 but remains below the levels of 2021 and 2019; by mid-2024, the number of operating units stands at 408, one more than a year ago but 30 below the 2002 peak, while installed capacity has increased to a new record (marginally +0.3 GW) above the 2006 record.
“Similarly, by mid-2024 there will be one more reactor under construction in the world, but three fewer countries building them: the US, UAE and Brazil,” he added. “That means the largest nuclear-powered country, the US, does not have a single reactor under construction, and no US utility has applied for a construction license for a large reactor. The only construction license application was submitted to the US regulator for Bill Gates’s tiny fantasy reactor Natrium, the design of which is not even licensed yet.”
The report reveals that at the end of June, 408 operational reactors were producing 367 GW worldwide, which compares with about 1.6 TW of PV by the end of 2023 and possibly about 1.9 TW by the end of June, given recent projections by BloombergNEF and Bernreuter Researchers, which predict 592 GW and 660 GW, respectively, for this year.
The report also notes that only five new nuclear reactors totalling 5 GW were switched on last year in Belarus, China, Slovakia, South Korea and the US, adding that this meager growth was not enough to increase global operating nuclear capacity as another five plants with a combined capacity of 6 GW were closed in Germany, Belgium and Taiwan.
“Over the two decades 2004-2023, 102 plants were commissioned and 104 were closed,” the report said. Of these, 49 were commissioned in China, which did not close any reactors. As a result, outside China there has been a dramatic net decline of 51 units over the same period, and net capacity decreased by 26.4 GW.”
The reports authors also note that 59 nuclear power plants totalling 60 GW were under construction in 13 countries by the end of June, compared with 64 projects in 2023. China accounts for around 46% of the total, with 27 projects under construction.
“All reactors under construction in at least nine of the 13 construction countries have experienced delays, often lasting a year,” the report’s authors note. “Of the 23 reactors documented as delayed, at least 10 have reported increasing delays, and two experienced delays for the first time last year.”
According to Schneider, the key is to analyse the dominant role of China and Russia. From December 2019 to mid-2024, there were 35 construction starts worldwide, 22 in China and 13 implemented by Russia in various countries. “Nothing else, nowhere, by anyone,” he said. “But even in the only country that is building massively, China, nuclear development is comparatively marginal. In 2023, China started up a new nuclear reactor, i.e. more than 1 GW, and more than 200 GW of solar alone. Solar generated 40% more energy than nuclear and all non-hydro renewables – mainly wind, solar and biomass – generated four times more than nuclear.”
The report also highlights how nuclear power is challenged not only by strong growth in solar and wind, but also by battery storage, the costs of which are projected to be lower than those of coal and nuclear power plants by around 2025 in China. “In most markets today, solar plus storage is already significantly cheaper than nuclear, and highly competitive with other low-emission electricity sources available on the market today,” the report notes.
The authors also cite data from investment bank Lazard, which reveals that solar plus storage may already be cheaper than peaking gas and new nuclear power. “The competitive cost and large-scale availability of variable renewable energy sources combined with backup options – especially storage – could well become the game-changer in energy policy in the years ahead,” they further explain.
The report also examines the current trajectory of so-called small modular reactors (SMRs), which promise to be the next-generation power plants, despite their very limited development to date. “The gap between the hype about SMRs and industrial reality continues to grow,” the authors say. “The nuclear industry and multiple governments are redoubling their financial and political investments in SMRs. So far, the reality on the ground does not reflect these efforts: with no design certifications, no construction in the West, SMR projects continue to be delayed or cancelled.”
They conclude that despite the common perception that nuclear power is regaining momentum, it is becoming “irrelevant” in the global market. “Solar plus storage could be the game-changer for adapting policy decisions to current industrial realities,” they say. |
