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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides a quick look at key price trends in the global PV industry.
The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), OPIS benchmark for polysilicon outside China, was valued at $22.567/kg this week, reflecting stable market fundamentals.
In the global polysilicon market, news of a delay in preliminary results of US investigations into cells and modules imported from four Southeast Asian countries has caused unrest.
According to one source, the deadline for the countervailing duty investigation, initially scheduled for around July 18, has been pushed back to September 30. The preliminary results of the antidumping duty investigation, initially scheduled for early October, will now be pushed back by one week, with the possibility of a further extension until the last week of November.
Other sources agreed, with one noting that “a postponement to November is a highly probable event.” The US is very likely to wait until after the 2024 presidential election to announce the concrete results of the tariffs, the source added.
Another industry insider noted that the uncertainty surrounding large integrated manufacturers exporting modules to the US has led them to consider all possible ways to postpone their monthly global polysilicon purchases secured from long-term contract suppliers during this period.
As a result, uncertainty about the operations of these large companies has also intensified. “Since high gross margins on US module prices are currently the only significant source of potential profitability for manufacturers in the supply chain, they cannot afford to abandon this market, despite rising trade barriers,” said one industry source. The source added that more module manufacturers are apparently delivering small module orders by paying a deposit at US customs during this window.
The global polysilicon market is set to endure another two to three months of prolonged “winter chill,” one market observer concluded, noting that minimal price fluctuations are expected during this period due to low market activity.
One market observer offered a long-term outlook, suggesting that, with support from U.S. trade policies, global polysilicon demand should remain stable in the coming years. The next major factor likely to influence global polysilicon prices will be changes in the supply-demand dynamics between global polysilicon production and new ingot production capacities outside of China and the four Southeast Asian countries, a change that may only become significant in a few years.
China Mono Grade, OPIS’s assessment for monograde polysilicon prices in the country, held steady at 33 yuan/kg ($4.60/kg) this week, marking the 10th consecutive week of stability. China Mono Premium, OPIS’s price assessment for monograde polysilicon used for N-type ingot mining, stands at 39 yuan/kg ($5.44/kg). Sources say Chinese polysilicon makers continue to grapple with ongoing production cuts and persistent cash losses.
According to one source, one of Chinas major polysilicon producers, with an annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes, has only scheduled 13,000 tonnes for August. Similarly, another major producer of comparable scale plans to produce 8,000 tonnes in August.
Recent market consensus suggests that polysilicon prices have bottomed and are unlikely to decline further, prompting wafer companies and traders to begin stockpiling polysilicon.
According to a market participant, wafer companies are increasing their inquiries about polysilicon prices, and some with stable cash flow have expressed their intention to stock up, although no concrete actions have yet been seen.
“This week, a slight increase in offers from some polysilicon manufacturers has already been observed, although this increase has not yet been reflected in actual transaction prices,” the source added.
Spot and futures traders have also increased their inquiries about polysilicon prices. Multiple sources have told OPIS that Chinese polysilicon is set to be listed as a futures commodity in October. This development could prompt some traders to accumulate inventories, which could push polysilicon prices higher.
However, according to a market study by OPIS, some industry experts remain sceptical that listing polysilicon as a futures product will have a positive impact on price increases.
“Given the current supply and demand situation, I believe that the inclusion of polysilicon as a futures product will not cause a significant increase in prices, as the difficulty of driving up polysilicon prices is compounded by the challenge of reducing polysilicon stocks,” said one market source. “At the moment, the polysilicon inventory of 200,000 to 300,000 mt is massive, and it is unlikely that all of it will be hoarded by dealers, not to mention that polysilicon production is still ongoing.”
Another market source offered a different perspective, noting that the success of polysilicon trading as a futures commodity also depends on the support of major polysilicon producers. If current low prices persist, these producers could push smaller competitors out of the market. However, listing polysilicon on the futures market could absorb excess production capacity, potentially leading to a price rebound and providing a lifeline for small producers.
In the early stages of a commodity’s futures trading, market operations are often underdeveloped, one market veteran said, adding that this is especially true for polysilicon, a commodity with few market participants and easily manipulated prices. “Given the current sluggishness of the polysilicon market, it may not be the ideal time to launch a future on this commodity, so a major change in prices is not expected,” the source concluded.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report . |
