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The most conservative projection from Brazilian solar association Absolar is that the country will add 9,386 MW of capacity this year, from the 37,806 MW accumulated by the end of 2023.
Brazil will accumulate 47,192 MW of installed solar generation capacity by the end of 2024, of which 32,277 MW will be in distributed generation, from systems of up to 5 MW, and 14,915 MW in centralized generation, from large photovoltaic plants, mostly to serve the free market.
The projection comes from the Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (Absolar) and represents an increase of 9,386 MW in installed capacity compared to the 37,806 MW installed by the end of 2023.
“These are conservative projections and these figures will undoubtedly be exceeded,” said Absolar CEO Rodrigo Sauaia at an event held last week in São Paulo in collaboration with the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA).
In 2023, 12,438 MWp of alternating current, or nearly 15,400 MWp of direct current, were installed. This was the record for annual solar generation capacity installations in Brazil, after the 10,863 MW added in 2022. With the installations carried out in 2023, Brazil was the third largest PV market in the world, behind only China (253 GWp) and the US (32.4 GWp).
Furthermore, the share of this source in the Brazilian electricity matrix, currently 18.6%, is expected to reach 30% in 2050.
Import signs
An important sign for understanding future installations, PV module imports totaled 17.5 GWp in 2023, according to Brazilian consultancy Greener, and accelerated in 2024. According to Infolink, imports in the first quarter of 2024 amounted to 6.6 GWp, an increase of 27% compared to the same period in 2023. From January to May, imports totaled 10.1 GW, equivalent to US$1.2 billion. |
