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Italian researchers have outlined a new model to calculate the cost of hydrogen production based on the size of plant components. They tested hydrogen production using photovoltaic, wind and hybrid power to determine the optimal size ratio for the 2030-2050 period. They also found that photovoltaic hydrogen can currently achieve a levelized cost of hydrogen of €5.11 ($5.53)/kg in Italy, with a photovoltaic ratio of 2.2. Researchers from the Italian Ministry of Environment and Energy Security and the Polytechnic University of Turin have developed a novel model to estimate the cost of hydrogen production based on the size of plant components. “The aim is to go beyond the analysis of a specific case study and offer generally applicable considerations for the optimal design of green hydrogen production systems,” say the researchers, who point out that the research was carried out for four production scenarios: photovoltaic only, wind only, hybrid solar-wind production and hybrid production with battery storage. “A sensitivity analysis is also carried out on the investment costs of hydrogen electricity production technologies to explore various technological learning paths from now until 2050.” The simulation is based on capacity factors for 2016 in Italy, which was identified as the most typical meteorological reference year for the country. In the proposed scenario, capex was assumed at €650 ($699)/kW for PV, €1,120/kW for wind, €306/kWh for battery storage and €1,188/kW for electrolysers. “The sensitivity analysis covers size ratios from 0.5 to 8 and battery autonomy values ??from 0 to 6 h, ensuring the identification of the point with the minimum levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH),” they explained. “Through this analysis, trends in energy and economic indicators are obtained based on the design ratios, and the optimal cost design point (minimum LCOH) is determined.” Through their analysis, the scientists found that the LCOH of the PV-only setup is 5.11 Euro/kg and is achieved with a PV ratio of 2.2. This means that the nominal PV power should be 2.2 times higher than the nominal power of the electrolyser. For the wind-only scenario, the LCOH was estimated at 5.76 Euro/kg, with a ratio of 2.8. “The optimal hybrid solution is characterized by a lower LCOH value (5.04 euros/kg) than the PV and wind configurations, and the optimal size ratio is 1.6 for both PV and wind,” they explain. “The introduction of a storage battery turns out to be economically inconvenient in terms of LCOH.” In a subsequent step, the researchers repeated the simulation with assumed capex for the 2030 and 2050 scenarios. In their 2030 scenario, capex was €450/kW for PV, €1,040/kW for wind, €175/kWh for battery storage, and €701/kW for electrolysers. Costs in 2050 were €350/kW, €960/kW, €131/kWh, and €314/kW, respectively. “The optimal PV ratio decreases from 2.2 in the current scenario to 2.1 in 2030 and 1.9 in 2050,” the results show. “The cost of hydrogen production also decreases from the current to the future scenarios. Specifically, LCOH, which is equivalent to 5.11 euros/kg at current technological costs, drops to 3.28 euros/kg in 2030 and to 2.04 euros/kg in 2050.” For the future wind scenarios, the ratio decreases to approximately 2.4 in 2030 and 1.9 in 2050, with prices falling to €4.69/kg and €3.71/kg, respectively. In the hybrid case, the wind coefficient decreases to zero in the 2030 and 2050 scenarios, while the PV coefficient increases to 2.1 in 2030 and decreases to 1.9 in 2050 to compensate for the absence of wind power. The LCOH decreases to €3.28/kg in 2030 and to €2.04/kg in 2050. “It is essential to provide industrial users and stakeholders with guidance on the appropriate sizing of new power-to-hydrogen plants,” the academics conclude. “Given the high cost of the technologies involved, the design should pursue a cost-optimal arrangement to minimise the cost of hydrogen production and improve the competitiveness of low-carbon hydrogen in the market.” Their findings were presented in “ Design of hydrogen production systems powered by solar and wind energy: An insight into the optimal size ratios, ” published in Energy Conversion and Management . |
