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In a new weekly update for pv weekly , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, offers a quick look at the main price trends in the global PV industry.
FOB China wafer prices have seen a broad decline again this week, underscoring the prevailing oversupply and weak demand in the market. Prices for Mono PERC M10 and N-type M10 wafers decreased by 2.58% and 8.81% week-on-week, reaching $0.189 per unit and $0.176 per unit, respectively.
Similarly, the prices of Mono PERC G12 and n-type G12 wafers fell by 0.76% and 2.18% from one week to the next, standing at $0.261/pc and $0.269/pc, respectively.
According to OPIS market research, the average transaction prices of Mono PERC M10 and N-type M10 wafers in the Chinese domestic market have dropped to around 1.52 yuan ($0.21)/pc and 1.41 yuan/ud, respectively. One industry insider even cited a transaction price of 1.35 yuan for M10 n-type wafers, suggesting the possible direction of n-type wafer prices in the immediate future.
Wafer inventory remains high, with approximately 4 billion units, equivalent to about 32 GW and half a months production, according to an industry source. In this context of high wafer inventories, this week it was reported that some manufacturers have even increased their production rate.
“Most of the wafer producers that have increased their production rate are specialized factories that have won orders from OEMs,” explained one source.
Within the entire wafer market, crucibles and other monocrystalline growth furnace consumables, such as graphite heat zone parts and carbon-carbon composites, stand out as the only profitable segments today, according to a market veteran. However, even the prices of these components have seen a significant decline, attributed to the reduced ability of wafer manufacturers to bear the costs of ancillary materials, the source said.
According to one market observer, the business model of wafer manufacturers offers greater flexibility than that of polysilicon producers. They can adjust their operating ratios as needed, based on their cash position, stock status, and participation in the OEM business model. However, as the source adds, significant alterations in the supply and demand landscape may still require the inevitable closure and exit of some wafer fabs.
Several solar energy manufacturers have recently published their financial reports for the first quarter of 2024, sparking great interest among industry insiders. According to a market observer, this interest is due to the desire to know the operational situation of companies and gauge factors such as the minimum price of products or the survival prospects of companies.
Large wafer manufacturers, despite incurring cash losses of billions of yuan due to their extensive production capacity, can still maintain competitiveness as they have an advantage in manufacturing costs, the source further noted. .
Another market participant explained that it is difficult to predict when some wafer manufacturers might go bankrupt to facilitate the improvement of the supply and demand pattern. Factors such as cash flow status, financing capacity, and whether a wafer company has a history in state-owned enterprises contribute to the uncertainty surrounding each wafer companys survival timeline in the market.
In the global market, industry discussions have revolved around the potential expansion of domestic cell and module production capacity in the United States, which could stimulate domestic demand for wafers from Southeast Asia. However, one market watcher highlighted that significant demand for wafers in the US could emerge only after cell production projects are established, a process that typically takes 18 to 24 months.
Furthermore, the source added that most of the wafer production capacity in Southeast Asia is currently owned by vertically integrated manufacturers who use it mainly for their own cell and module production within the region and rarely sell wafers abroad. . Accordingly, the source foresees the accelerated emergence of more wafer production capacity in Southeast Asia in the next two years, given the regions status as a mature market for solar energy manufacturing.
The latest news on production capacity also seems to corroborate this observation. According to OPIS data from the last two months, there have been no less than five updates on wafer projects in Southeast Asia. This week it was announced that US-based SEG Solar signed a land use agreement to establish its integrated PV manufacturing hub, including a 5GW wafer fab, in Indonesia.
Additionally, Singapore-based G-Star announced on April 30 the start of construction of its 3 GW ingot and wafer plant in Indonesia. VSUN started production at its 4 GW wafer fab in Vietnam on April 18, while Astronergy started production at its 5 GW wafer fab in Thailand on April 15. Additionally, Imperial Star announced on March 16 that the company is about to start production at its 4 GW wafer plant in Laos.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report . |
