| Work Detail |
In a new monthly column for pv magazine , the International Solar Energy Society (ISES) explains how solar and wind are dominating power plant construction.
In 2023, solar and wind together constituted 80% of global net electricity capacity additions. The growth in electrical capacity is followed by the growth in annual energy generation.
In the last decade, global solar generation has increased nine-fold to reach 1,500 TWh per year, while wind generation has tripled to 2,300 TWh per year (Figure 1). This corresponds to compound growth rates of 22% and 11% per year, respectively. In contrast, hydroelectric, nuclear and coal generation had growth rates of around 1% annually, and gas 3%.
The solar growth rate of 22% per year is equivalent to a doubling every 3 years. At this growth rate, solar generation will reach 100,000 TWh annually in 2042, enough to completely decarbonize the global economy.
Nuclear power has a global average capacity factor of 74%, followed by coal (50% to 70%), combined cycle gas (40% to 60%), wind power (30% to 60%), large hydroelectric plants (30% to 50%) and photovoltaic solar energy (12% to 25%).
Despite its relatively low capacity factor, solar generation is expected to surpass nuclear in 2026, wind in 2027, hydro in 2028, gas in 2030 and coal in 2032.
Solar and wind strongly dominate power plant construction, while construction of all other generation technologies is small and stagnant. Coal, gas and nuclear could disappear almost entirely by mid-century, once retirements outpace new construction.
The leading countries in solar and wind generation per capita are all in Europe, except Australia (Figure 2). Figure 2 also shows global per capita generation of hydroelectric and nuclear power. The combined production of solar and wind energy in major countries is now four times greater than the combined global average production of hydro and nuclear energy.
Australia is a global pioneer because, unlike Europe, it cannot share electricity across national borders to reduce the effects of weather and demand variables. Australia must do it alone. Australia is convincingly demonstrating that change can come quickly with good policies. In the period 2020-2030, fossil generation is falling from 75% to 18%, while solar and wind generation is increasing from 19% to 75%.
Brazil and Chile are pioneering middle-income countries, with 81% and 60%, respectively, of electricity generation from hydraulic, wind and solar energy. Pioneering countries are driven by the desire to reduce both electricity prices and emissions. There are few serious concerns about the future stability of the network because enough will be invested in storage, transmission and demand management.
Authors: Prof. Ricardo Rüther (UFSC), Prof. Andrew Blakers/ANU
Andrew.blakers@anu.edu.au
rruther@gmail.com
ISES , the International Solar Energy Society , is a UN-accredited NGO founded in 1954 working towards a world with 100% renewable energy for all, used efficiently and prudently.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine. |
