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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, offers a small analysis of supply and pricing trends for solar PV modules.
The FOB prices in China of PERC M10 and TOPCon M10 mono cells have extended their declines this week, standing at $0.0417/W and $0.0494/W, respectively, representing a decrease of 5.01% and 4.45% compared to the previous week.
FOB China prices for PERC G12 mono have stabilized this week, holding at $0.0448/W. This stability can be attributed to the recent start of several ground-based solar projects in China, which has stimulated demand for this type of cells. The limited production capacity of these cells has caused intermittent supply shortages.
In the Chinese domestic market, PERC M10 mono cells were priced at around 0.335 yuan ($0.046)/W, while TOPCon M10 cells were around 0.397 yuan/W, according to OPIS market research. According to a major TOPCon cell producer, the current cell price trend closely mirrors that of wafers.
Furthermore, this source stated that there is no indication of any demand factor favoring a reversal of the price trend, and that the only foreseeable solution to reversing the current sluggishness of the market is to wait for some of the capacity to be gradually eliminated. production.
There has been talk that module makers plan to reduce production in May. This has raised concerns among some familiar with the situation about the possible accumulation of cell stocks. Therefore, a major cell manufacturer expects prices to continue to decline in May, with TOPCon cells experiencing a steeper decline than monopERC cells as production of the latter continues to decline.
“The current scenario in the TOPCon cell market is proving to be quite difficult,” the source added, “as even Tier 1 cell manufacturers depend on accepting OEM orders to sustain their operations.”
Another smaller cell manufacturer shares a similar opinion, stating that the price of PERC mono cells could soon reach its lowest point due to reduced production capacity. Added to this argument is the intention of one of the main cell manufacturers to further reduce the production capacity of mono PERC cells in May, according to the source. Conversely, this source anticipates that another round of TOPCon cell price cuts in May appears inevitable.
According to a market observer, some cell manufacturers have found it less profitable to invest in building TOPCon cell capacity due to the bearish trend in TOPCon cell prices. This source further explained that earlier this year, to mitigate losses, a leading integrated manufacturer of nN-type products chose to partner with another lesser-known manufacturer to establish a TOPCon cell production capacity. The objective is to reinforce the production of modules of this important manufacturer of nN type products.
This model, in which major players support smaller producers, share risks and cooperate for mutual benefit, could set the course for business operations in the future, the source added.
In terms of product size, two major cell suppliers have confirmed to OPIS that they are about to start mass production of 210R size n-type cells (182mm x 210mm) in May or June. One of them has pointed out that these 210R products are expected to make significant progress in the market in the second half of this year, constituting a crucial parameter to increase the power of the modules.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report . |
