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A study carried out by Greener based on data updated through February identified a 68% increase in the supply of new centralized solar generation projects. The price of energy below what is necessary to pay for investments is a challenge for the materialization of new plants, as well as distribution capacity, with only 19 GW of projects that have signed transmission system use contracts (CUST). .
Until February 2024, Brazil had 145 GW of solar generation projects awarded by Aneel, according to a study carried out by Greener. Of this offer, 125 GW are projects with construction not yet started, of which 123 GW are on the free market. Of the projects not yet started, 35 GW have signed access licenses and 19 GW have valid contracts for the use of the transmission network, considered more viable.
The figures were presented on Wednesday (04/24) at a breakfast for investors held by the consulting firm and are part of the Centralized Generation Study 2024, which will be published in full during the Greener Summit 24, on May 7 and 8.
Despite the growth in supply, the materialization of projects is hampered by the relatively lower growth in demand, the availability of outputs and the price of energy in the short-term market, which is below what is expected. considered appropriate to remunerate investments in the plants.
In fact, according to Greeners cartography, the contracting of new projects in the free market has slowed down. In 2023, the consultancy identified 2.3 GWp in new PPAs, the same volume identified in 2022, below the 3.3 GWp closed in 2021. In total, 14.5 GWp of solar plant PPAs signed since 2018.
On the one hand, notes Greener director Márcio Takata, the drop in module costs in the last year has weighed favorably on the viability of the projects, but low energy prices do not remunerate new contracts.
In this sense, Carlos Dornellas, technical and regulatory director of the Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (Absolar), stressed that the short-term market price used to adjust the differences between the contracted energy and that consumed in the free market, It should not serve as a reference for consumers in long-term planning, “because there is too much variation in long-term price. The possibility of [the consumer] making a mistake and finding out is great and can lead to high costs over the years.” |
