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In a new weekly update for pv magazine , OPIS, a Dow Jones company, offers a quick look at the main price trends in the global PV industry. China FOB prices for PERC and TOPCon Mono M10 cells, the main size of solar cells in the current solar market, continued their downward trajectory and were assessed at $0.0550/W and $0.0616/W this week , respectively. According to OPIS data, these are the lowest prices in its history, in a context of falling prices throughout the supply chain and weak demand in China and its main export market. Cell prices were negatively affected by declining supply chain prices in China. The prices of Chinese polysilicon and Mono PERC M10 wafers fell by 4.07% and 0.40% respectively this week. The price of Mono PERC modules is about 1.011 yuan (0.14 US dollars)/W, very close to the industrys psychologically low value of 1 yuan/W, while the prices of TOPCon modules are slightly higher at 1.077 yuan /W. OPIS has learned from its market research that cell manufacturers are doing everything possible to reduce production costs as they are experiencing losses. One of the measures is to buy lower quality wafers. According to a cell supplier, low quality Mono PERC M10 wafers are available in the Chinese market for 1.7 yuan/unit, while good quality wafers are still priced between 2.2 yuan/unit and 2.3 yuan/unit. unit. This may resonate with some downstream users concerned about the impact that this competition to reduce production costs may have on the quality of modules by 2024. Another strategy of cell manufacturers to reduce production costs is to outsource their production to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). OPIS has learned from the market that a major cell manufacturer has an extremely high exploitation rate, as it has secured numerous contracts from other cell companies that have outsourced their cell production. According to OPIS market research, manufacturers that outsource cell production benefit from the low cost of high OEM run rates, and could supply Mono PERC M10 cells at a price of less than 0.43 yuan/W in the Chinese market. Those that continue to produce at a low rate in their own production centers continue to offer them at around 0.45 yuan/W. Sentiment in China remains bearish. According to the National Energy Administration, China deployed 13.62 gigawatts (GW) of solar energy in October, a month-on-month decrease of 13.69%. It is the third consecutive month in which newly installed solar capacity in China has decreased. Chinas main export markets continue to offer little sunshine. A state-owned cell manufacturing company says sales of its cells have been hampered since the second half of the year, especially in the cell export market. Buying Chinese cells has become a rarity for its Southeast Asian consumers, although they used to do it regularly. “Module producers cannot use Chinese cells if they want to ship their products to the US market; The local Southeast Asian market has very limited solar capacity to digest Chinese cells and modules,” this supplier explained. Looking ahead, the industry expects the price of Mono PERC M10 cells to continue to decline, and industry discussions suggest it could drop to around 0.4 yuan/W very soon in the Chinese domestic market. This indicates that the mood in the cell market will remain subdued. OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the pricing data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report. |
