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Philip Wolfe, founder of photovoltaic data consultancy Wiki-Solar, delves into the data to highlight some interesting variations in relative progress around the world.
The top three countries – China, the United States and India – still account for around two-thirds of the worlds commercial-scale solar power generation capacity. However, if we look beyond those simple totals, we will find impressive relative results for many of those countries in the remaining third.
From Wiki-Solars comprehensive database of more than 22,000 commercial-scale solar projects worldwide, a wide range of comparators can be obtained, including site performance ratios, average performance and land use. This article examines national achievements and rates of progress.
Contribution of solar energy
First, we have evaluated the nominal annual production of each countrys large solar capacity and compared it with the national electricity consumption. On this basis, five countries already cover more than 10% of their electricity demand with solar energy on a commercial scale. Most of these numbers would be much higher if rooftops and other small-scale solar installations were taken into account.
Chile tops the list, thanks in part to its exceptional performance in so many high-altitude desert locations. El Salvador and Jordan feature prominently, with solar energy contributing substantially to their modest electricity demand. Spain carries the flag for Europe, while Australia has made good progress after a slow start.
The UAE owes much of its lofty position to a single major project, Dubais Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park. India may be only the third country in total generating capacity, but it surpasses the United States and China in relative terms, with 8.6% of its electricity coming from commercial-scale solar and 13.2% of the total solar capacity.
An expanded list of most countries with significant solar capacity can be found on the Wiki-Solar website. This includes Germany, with 3.2% of its electricity demand covered by large solar installations, a few places above China, which is in 29th place, with 2.6%.
The main contenders
The pace of progress is another key indicator. Weve evaluated this by looking at the change over the five-year period from 2017 to last year.
For comparison, we have extended this rate forward until utility-scale solar meets 100% of electricity demand. This is, of course, a theoretical exercise. In practice, no country would generate all of its energy this way and neither the growth of solar energy nor the trend in electricity consumption will continue in a straight line. However, the results of the exercise are illuminating.
Chile once again tops the list and would only need 25 years to reach 100% solar coverage. Spain has seen notable renewed growth in recent years, taking it to second place on the list, with El Salvador and Jordan not far behind. In theory, the top ten countries in solar progress would reach 100% solar energy, only on a commercial scale, before the end of the century.
Again, the full list is available online and features a strong European contingent - Portugal, Greece, the Netherlands and Denmark - just outside the top ten. Some countries where commercial-scale solar progress has been slow would need several centuries to reach 100%.
The large solar plants we are considering are, of course, not for individuals or homes. Another measure of comparative achievement is the relative solar generating capacity per person.
Inevitably, it is quite similar to the first table, but this time the UAE and Australia surpass Chile. The United States ranks much higher in this table because its per capita energy consumption - from all generation sources - is substantially higher than that of most other countries. Again, the full table is available online.
The question of land
Wiki-Solar has the exact footprints of most power plants, which allows us to evaluate the surface area usually occupied by large solar plants in different parts of the world. When this figure is related to each countrys land area, it is not surprising to find that land use is rarely an issue.
The most a country currently devotes to commercial-scale solar energy is just over one-tenth of 1%. Only two relatively small, energy-intensive countries – Taiwan and South Korea – would need to allocate more than 3% of their surface area to photovoltaics, even to reach the theoretical paradigm of 100% solar energy.
The full list shows the United States among the countries that would need to dedicate about 0.5% of the total land area for 100% solar power. The use of building-mounted systems and the growth of agrivoltaics, of course, means that allocated land can also be productive for other purposes.
Disclaimer
The term “nominal power” refers to the expected annual power of the solar plants. Actual production in practice will vary depending on solar radiation and other climatic and site factors such as grid limitations.
The 100% solar paradigm is used for illustrative and comparative purposes. A scenario with 100% renewable energy that includes wind, hydraulic and biomass energy along with solar is more realistic.
National electricity consumption figures come mainly from the French data company Enerdata and the International Energy Agency; Population data comes mainly from the United Nations. Commercial scale solar figures come from the Wiki-Solar database. For consistency, generation capacity is expressed in MW/TW (AC) to allow a direct comparison between PV and CSP plants and other forms of generation. |
