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The target is needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, which would require tripling renewable capacity by 2030, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. Solar energy and electric vehicles would be responsible for 30% of the sectors emissions reduction in that period. Clean energy investments are expected to increase from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually in the early 2030s.
The International Energy Agencys (IEA) new Net Zero roadmap sets out a global path to limit global warming to 1.5°C, which would require net-zero emissions from the global energy sector by 2050.
This goal can be achieved with planned investments in solar generation and electric vehicles in line with these objectives, as well as with industry plans to deploy new production capacity for these technologies. This is significant, as these two technologies alone provide one-third of the emissions reductions to current levels by 2030.
However, to reduce the rest of emissions, bolder actions are needed this decade in other segments. Under the “net zero” scenario, global renewable energy capacity triples by 2030. In addition, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement doubles, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps increase sharply, and methane emissions from the energy sector are reduced by 75%.
These strategies are based on proven and often more cost-effective technologies for reducing emissions. Together, they allow more than 80% of the reductions necessary by the end of the decade.
Reducing net emissions in the energy sector to zero by 2050 also depends on mobilizing a significant increase in investment, especially in emerging and developing economies. Under the new zero path, global spending on clean energy increases from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually in the early 2030s.
International Cooperation
Staying on the net-zero path means that almost all countries must individually make progress on schedule to reduce their net emissions to zero.
“Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires the world to come together, and fast. The good news is that we know what we have to do and how to do it. Our Net Zero Roadmap to 2023, based on the latest data and analysis, shows the way forward,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. “But we also have a very clear message: strong international cooperation is crucial for success. “Governments must separate climate from geopolitics, given the magnitude of the challenge they face.”
Just transition and universalization
To talk about international cooperation it is necessary to analyze the different national circumstances. The Roadmap outlines a path to net-zero emissions for the global energy sector in 2050, but recognizes the importance of promoting an equitable transition that takes these differences into account. For example, the net-zero emissions scenario considers that advanced economies will drive net-zero emissions sooner, to give emerging and developing economies more time. And the path to net zero emissions also includes full access to modern forms of energy for all by 2030 through an annual investment of almost $45 billion a year, just over 1% of investment in the energy sector.
Expensive and unproven carbon removal technologies
The report highlights the importance of greater international cooperation to limit global warming to 1.5ºC and warns that failure to sufficiently increase ambition and meeting the 2030 targets would create additional climate risks and would make achieving the 1.5ºC target dependent on the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies, which are expensive and untested at scale.
In the case of delayed action examined in the report, if clean energy cannot be expanded quickly enough by 2030, almost 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year would have to be removed from the atmosphere during the second half of this century. If carbon removal technologies do not work at this scale, returning the temperature to 1.5°C will not be possible.
“Removing carbon from the atmosphere is very expensive. We must do everything possible to stop putting it there,” Birol said. “The path to 1.5°C has narrowed in the last two years, but clean energy technologies keep it open. With international momentum behind key global targets such as tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, which together would lead to further declines in fossil fuel demand this decade, the COP28 climate summit in Dubai is an opportunity vital to committing to greater ambition and implementation in the remaining years of this critical decade.”
Reduce demand for fossil fuels
In the updated net-zero emissions scenario, the significant policy-driven increase in clean energy capacity reduces demand for fossil fuels by 25% by 2030, reducing emissions by 35% compared with the all-time high in 2022. By 2050, demand for fossil fuels is reduced by 80%.
As a result, new oil and gas extraction projects are not needed in the long term. There is also no need for new coal mines, mine expansions or new unexploited coal power plants.
However, there is a need to continue investing in some existing oil and gas assets and already approved projects. Sequencing increasing investment in clean energy and decreasing investment in fossil fuel supply is vital to avoid damaging price spikes or oversupply.
New Technologies Available
Clean energy innovation has also provided more options and reduced technology costs. While in the 2021 Roadmap almost half of the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 came from technologies not yet available on the market. In this years update, that figure has dropped to around 35%. |
