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A Dutch-German research team has used a unique method to detect the shortage of silver in the photovoltaic industry. By mapping the silver supply chain from 1995 to 2021, they have identified distinct supply patterns and associated risks.
Researchers from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy (Fraunhofer ISE) in Germany and the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) in the Netherlands have carried out risk-based due diligence on the supply of silver for the photovoltaic industry, in order to to identify potential shortages in the future.
“Given typical mining industry lead times and constraints related to permitting and environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues linked to mine expansion, it is clear that bottlenecks lie ahead. of unknown duration,” researcher Estelle Gervais told pv magazine . "Therefore, disruptions in the supply of silver, as well as many other materials needed in energy technologies, including copper, can be expected."
According to Gervais, the silver industry has historically withstood these challenges thanks to strategic reserves and recycling, which have played a key role during periods of supply shortages over the past 50 years. Silver reserves have also not declined significantly relative to production over time, suggesting that depleted reserves have been replenished through mine expansion.
“This is, at least, a cautiously optimistic signal for the medium and long term,” says Gervais. “Estimates of future supply are linked to high uncertainty. However, we have been able to identify specific risks related to market concentration and ESG issues in silver supply chains, which could translate into short-term supply constraints. This is especially true in the case of photovoltaic markets such as the EU and the US, which are increasingly working towards security and sustainability of supply”.
Gervais and his colleagues mapped the solar supply chain for silver from 1995 to 2021 and identified a number of supply patterns and risks. They also analyzed the impact of alternative supply routes and the relocation of photovoltaic manufacturing to Europe.
The research group stated that most of the ESG risks arising from silver paste manufacturing are in China, due to its market dominance. The researchers noted that Mexico and China concentrate most of the ESG risks of mining and refining. They also noted the need to prioritize due diligence and traceability with local stakeholders, as ESG risk monitoring becomes the norm.
Reducing the consumption of silver in PV is crucial, both to alleviate the silver price issue and to reduce the environmental and social impact along the supply chain,” said Gervais, referring to the ability of photovoltaic producers to reduce the silver content in the production of solar cells, a process known as “thrifting”. “However, silver prices are both a problem and part of the solution. They will help to balance supply and demand, and will encourage photovoltaic recycling”.
Gervais says that prolonged periods of silver supply shortages could be a clear deterrent to the PV industry and intensify the search for substitutes.
“Copper prices make it a great alternative to silver in photovoltaics and there have been considerable technological advances in this field,” added Gervais. “The development of copper contact pastes for screen printing is advancing and there are industrial manufacturing solutions for copper plating. However, it must be stressed that going from silver to copper will not automatically guarantee photovoltaic manufacturers a “sustainable” product. Not all copper is created equal – only careful examination of the underlying copper supply chains and diversified supply would support this.”
Gervais and his team presented their findings in " Risk-based due diligence in supply chains: The case of silver for photovoltaics , " published recently in Resources, Conservation and Recycling . |
