| Work Detail |
Only in 2023, 6.6 GW were added, of which 4.4 GW in micro and mini-generation of own energy and 2.2 GW in large generation. Considering distributed generation, the solar source would have a 16.5% share in the Brazilian electricity matrix. Solar generation in Brazil has exceeded 32 GW, of which 22.5 GW is from distributed generation and 9.6 GW from centralized generation. Only in 2023 will 6.6 GW be added, 4.4 GW in micro and mini-generation and 2.2 GW in large-scale generation. If this rhythm of installations is repeated in the second half of the year, the solar source can reach the end of the year with 38 GW accumulated. Considering distributed generation, the solar source would have a 16.5% share in the Brazilian electrical matrix, of 216.8 GW – 193.8 GW of centralized generation plus 22.7 GW of distributed generation, including all generation sources. . Distributed generation In the first six months of 2023, distributed solar generation added 4.2 GW of capacity, with 365,000 new systems connected to the grid, according to Aneel. The expansion of distributed generation in 2023 was led, among the consumer segments, by residential systems, which added 2,129 GW in the first half of the year. Next, the commercial class added 1 GW. Among the states, São Paulo led the expansion, with 656 MW added in the first six months of the year. Minas Gerais added another 460 MW. Since the beginning of the year, the states have been fighting for leadership in distributed solar generation installed capacity, with just over 3,000 MW installed each. The high price of financing and the drop in sales after the entry into force of the legal framework for distributed generation are presented as some of the main challenges for the modality in the short term. Centralized generation In centralized generation, as of 06/15, the projects connected in 2023 total 2,201 MW, almost exceeding the 2,528 MW installed in all of last year. Aneel foresees the installation of another 1,086 MW until the end of the year. The free market, especially self-production models, has led the expansion of distributed generation, with most of the projects that are expected to come online in the coming years destined for the free market. Aneel plans to commission 7.4 GW in 2024 and another 7.4 GW in 2025. With the opening of the free market to all consumers connected to high voltage from 2024, new demand for renewable generation projects should be unlocked. The profile of smaller and pulverized loads should require new products and services from generators and traders. The lack of transmission margin, aggravated by the delay of projects that sought subsidies to obtain discounts on rates for the use of the transmission system, should be alleviated by Aneels approval of a mechanism to withdraw unfeasible projects, which should clear the queue for access to the network at 11 GW, and, in the long term, due to the entry into operation of new transmission lines recently contracted. The scarcity of new flow capacity should also encourage new hybrid generation projects. |
