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The new edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV), published this week, concludes that 295 GW of photovoltaic modules were commercialized in 2022, and that prices of silicon PV modules fell by 7% over the year.
This week the annual report ITRPV, prepared by the German engineering association VDMA, is published. Now in its 14th edition, the report takes an in-depth look at technology trends across the supply chain of silicon PV products. VDMA estimates that PV module shipments in 2022 will amount to 295 GW, with 258 GW installed and the rest still in transit or in storage.
The ITRPV concludes that, by the end of 2022, the weighted average spot price of silicon PV modules decreased by 7% compared to the previous year, reaching $0.228/W. The report also notes a growing market share for n-type technologies, and that the price premium for these is now marginal: just two-tenths of a cent above the median at $0.230/W.
Regarding manufacturing capacity, the VDMA notes that at the end of last year there were about 600 GW online, and that crystalline silicon technologies represented 95% of the market. New factories coming online today typically have at least 2 GW of capacity, and this figure is expected to rise to 5 GW in the long term.
Technology Trends
Large wafer formats (182mm and 210mm) already account for more than 60% of the market, with 166mm and smaller formats expected to disappear from the market entirely by 2027. The VDMA also forecasts that larger formats 210mm to appear after 2025, representing only a small market share over the next decade. The division between these two large formats is still unclear, but all new production lines will be able to process both.
Monocrystalline silicon already accounts for 97% of production, and the report predicts that older multicrystalline technologies will disappear completely in the near future. Gallium doping has also become widespread, and boron doping, which it replaces, is expected to disappear by the end of this year.
PERC (passivated emitter rear contact) remains the leading cell technology for now, with around 70% of the market, but the VDMA notes that its replacement by TOPCon (passivated tunnel oxide contact) is well advanced. According to the report, TOPCon is expected to achieve a 60% market share, heterojunction 19% and back-contact technologies 5% by 2033.
Silver
VDMA research has revealed that efforts to reduce silver consumption have progressed faster than anticipated in the ITRPV 2022, already reaching an average of 10mg/W. This number should drop to 6.5mg/W in 2033. This number should drop to 6.5mg in the next decade, despite the growth of n-type technologies that require more silver than PERC. “TOPCon in mass production by Tier 1 manufacturers in China is reported to be, by the end of 2022, at lower consumption levels 2 to 5 years ahead of our prediction,” VDMA states.
However, the ITRPV continues to be conservative regarding the total substitution of silver. He expects copper plating to enter mass production over the next decade, but says it will only account for 7.5% of the market by 2033. “Before alternative plating techniques are introduced, technical issues related to reliability and reliability need to be resolved. adherence”, states the VDMA. “It is also necessary to prepare the right equipment and processes for mass production.” Silver is expected to remain the most widely used front metallization material for crystalline silicon cells for years to come.” |
