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Tenders are invited for Consultancy Strategic Assessment of Regional Disruption and Implications for Greenpeace MENAs Campaigns and Theory of Change. Closing Date: Tuesday, 25. Aug 2026 Intervention Sector(s): Environment Strategic Assessment of Regional Disruption and Implications for Greenpeace MENAs Campaigns and Theory of Change Background and Context The Middle East and North Africa region is experiencing a period of profound disruption shaped by the latest war in the Middle East, wider regional escalation risks, and shifting geopolitical alignments, economic shocks, social fragility, and worsening climate and environmental pressures. These developments are unfolding in a region already marked by inequality, conflict vulnerability, fossil fuel dependency, water scarcity, food insecurity, energy insecurity, constrained civic space, and uneven climate resilience. The war and its broader regional repercussions are likely to reshape power relations, diplomacy, security priorities, governance systems, economic planning, public narratives, and social movements. The disruption also has direct and indirect climate and environmental consequences, including damage to ecosystems and infrastructure, pollution risks, reconstruction pressures, increased fossil fuel dependency, weakened environmental governance, and heightened vulnerability of communities already facing climate impacts. For Greenpeace MENA, this moment requires a strategic assessment of how Geopolitical and economic changes intersect with climate justice, environmental protection, energy transition, civic space, and movement-building. The assessment should help Greenpeace MENA understand the implications for its campaigns, advocacy, partnerships, public positioning, narratives, risk management, and long-term strategic direction. It should also inform the development of Greenpeace MENAs updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, leverage points, risks, opportunities, and strategic choices. Purpose The purpose of this consultancy is to provide Greenpeace MENA with a rigorous, conflict-sensitive and forward-looking strategic analysis of the latest Middle East war and wider regional disruption, with a focus on its geopolitical, economic, social, climate and environmental implications, and the consequences for Greenpeace MENAs campaigns, strategy, alliances, positioning and new Theory of Change. The consultancy should generate practical and actionable recommendations that enable Greenpeace MENA to respond strategically to the current moment, strengthen its relevance and impact, and align its future work with emerging regional realities. Objectives The consultancy will aim to: Assess the geopolitical implications in MENA countries ( with a focus Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, UAE and KSA )of the latest war in the Middle East, including regional power shifts, diplomacy, governance, security priorities, civic space, public discourse and implications for civil society actors. Analyze the economic and political economy impacts in MENA countries of the war and wider disruption, including implications for macroeconomic stability, energy systems, reconstruction, trade, livelihoods, public finance, inequality, debt, extractivism, and development pathways. Examine the climate and environmental impacts of the disruption, including direct environmental harm, indirect ecological consequences, climate resilience, environmental governance, reconstruction risks, pollution, energy choices, food and water security, and environmental justice. Identify implications for Greenpeace MENAs campaigns, narratives, advocacy priorities, partnerships, movement-building, public positioning, and regional relevance. Provide strategic recommendations to inform Greenpeace MENAs updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, systems analysis, leverage points, pathways of change, risks, opportunities, and priority strategic choices. Support Greenpeace MENA in understanding how to meet the moment in a way that is politically grounded, climate-relevant, justice-oriented, conflict-sensitive and aligned with Greenpeace values. Scope of Work The consultant or consultancy team will undertake a regional strategic assessment of Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, the UAE and KSA, covering the following areas: Geopolitical Analysis The assessment should examine: Regional power shifts and emerging alliances. The role of key state and non-state actors. Impacts on diplomacy, regional cooperation and multilateralism. Shifts in security priorities and implications for climate and environmental agendas. Governance implications, including state capacity, legitimacy, public trust, and institutional fragility. Civic space, freedom of expression, and civil society risks and opportunities. Public narratives related to war, security, sovereignty, justice, energy, and environment. Implications for regional climate diplomacy and the role of MENA countries in global climate negotiations. Economic and Political Economy Analysis The assessment should examine: Macroeconomic disruption, including inflation, debt, fiscal pressures, investment risks, and currency instability where relevant. Impacts on trade routes, supply chains, food systems, energy markets, and transport. Energy security debates and whether the disruption reinforces fossil fuel dependency or creates openings for renewable energy transition. Reconstruction economies and the risks of extractive, carbon-intensive, or unjust rebuilding models. Livelihood impacts, particularly for vulnerable communities, workers, youth, women, refugees, displaced people, and informal sectors. The role of fossil fuel interests, reconstruction actors, private sector interests, and international finance. Risks of deepened extractivism, militarization of economies, or environmental deregulation. Opportunities for just transition, decentralized renewable energy, resilience, and community-led economic alternatives. Climate and Environmental Analysis The assessment should examine: Direct environmental harm linked to war, including pollution, destruction of land and infrastructure, toxic contamination, ecosystem damage, waste, water pollution, air pollution, and marine impacts where applicable. Indirect environmental consequences, including weakened regulation, emergency governance, reconstruction pressure, increased fossil fuel use, and reduced attention to climate commitments. Climate resilience implications for communities facing heat, water scarcity, food insecurity, energy insecurity, and displacement. Environmental justice dimensions, including unequal exposure to harm, intergenerational impacts and the disproportionate burden on already vulnerable communities. Environmental governance risks, including rollback of regulation, reduced accountability, corruption risks and limited enforcement. The relationship between war, fossil fuel dependency, militarization, ecological degradation, and climate vulnerability. Strategic opportunities to connect peace, justice, climate resilience, renewable energy, environmental protection, and community safety. Implications for Greenpeace MENA The assessment should identify implications for Greenpeace MENAs: Regional strategy and programme priorities. Climate, energy, environmental justice, biodiversity, food, plastics, pollution, and movement-building campaigns where relevant. Public narratives and communications positioning. Advocacy priorities at national, regional, and global levels. Partnerships, alliances, and civil society engagement. Risk appetite, security approach, and conflict-sensitive campaigning. Role within the wider Greenpeace global network. Ability to connect regional lived realities with global climate justice narratives. Opportunities to influence climate diplomacy, public debate, donor engagement, and movement mobilization. Implications for Greenpeace MENAs Theory of Change The consultancy must include a dedicated analysis of implications for Greenpeace MENAs new Theory of Change. This should include: New or revised contextual assumptions. Key system dynamics affecting climate and environmental action in MENA. Strategic leverage points for Greenpeace MENA. Priority actors, allies, blockers, and influencers. Pathways of change that are credible under current geopolitical and economic conditions. Risks and trade-offs for Greenpeace MENAs strategic choices. Opportunities for campaign integration and cross-regional influence. Recommendations on how Greenpeace MENA can remain relevant, courageous, effective, safe, and justice-oriented in a rapidly changing context. Key Questions The consultancy should address, at minimum, the following questions: Geopolitical Questions How has the latest war changed regional power dynamics, diplomacy, and governance priorities? What are the implications for civic space, civil society organizing, and public advocacy? How are security, sovereignty, justice, energy, and environment being framed by governments, media, and civil society? What risks and opportunities does this create for climate and environmental campaigning in MENA? How might this moment affect regional and global climate diplomacy? What were the temporary or long-term policy responses to the war related to various issues (energy, agriculture, industry) in various countries? Economic Questions What are the main economic impacts of the war and wider disruption on countries and communities in the region? How are energy security, fossil fuel dependency, and renewable energy being affected by the disruption? What are the likely implications for reconstruction, public finance, trade, livelihood Tender Link : https://daleel-madani.org/civil-society-directory/greenpeace-mena-grynbys/calls/call-consultancy-proposals
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