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Tenders are invited for Integrated Resilience, Gender, and Peace & Conflict Analysis --Syria and Lebanon Closing Date: 23 Jun 2026 Type: Consultancy CONTEXT Syrias post-conflict environment remains deeply fragile. Since December 2024, nearly 1.99 million IDP returnees and over 1.14 million cross-border arrivals have been recorded, representing 11% of the total population. Syrias Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2026 estimates 15.6 million people in need of assistance, including over 5.5 million IDPs. Over 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and economic stress continues to undermine stability and strain local coping mechanisms. Lebanon continues to face significant humanitarian needs following the escalation of hostilities in March 2026. Despite repeated ceasefire announcements and diplomatic efforts, the situation remains volatile. Insecurity persists in several areas, particularly in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, limiting safe and sustainable returns for many displaced families. Ongoing displacement, damaged infrastructure, explosive hazard contamination, and disrupted access to essential services continue to exacerbate vulnerabilities among conflict-affected populations while placing additional strain on Lebanons already overstretched public systems. At the peak of the crisis, more than one million people were displaced, including over 127,000 individuals accommodated in 631 collective shelters. The conflict has also resulted in more than 3,185 deaths and 9,633 injuries, underscoring its severe humanitarian impact and the continued need for humanitarian assistance and recovery support. Moreover, Lebanon hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees, the highest per capita refugee population in the world. The governorates of Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar -- IRCs target areas -- are historically among the most economically marginalized in Lebanon and host significant concentrations of Syrian refugees and Lebanese returnees. IRC is developing a three-year, EUR 8 million multi-sector regional program under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) framework, targeting Syrian-affected populations in Syria and Lebanon across Livelihoods, Education/Early Childhood Development (ECD) sectors. The analysis should also note protection risks where relevant, given IRCs protection mainstreaming approach. Protection risks must be systematically analyzed across all components (Resilience Analysis, Peace and Conflict Analysis, and Gender Analysis), including how economic vulnerability, displacement, and conflict dynamics create or exacerbate risks for different population groups, in line with IRCs protection mainstreaming approach. The program will be delivered in partnership with local organizations, with a minimum of 45% of program funds directed to local partners. To meet BMZs analytical requirements and ensure the program is evidence-based, IRC requires an external consultant to conduct an integrated regional analysis combining three mandatory components: a Resilience Analysis (RA), a Peace and Conflict Analysis (PCA), and a Gender Analysis (GA). These must be delivered as a single coherent document that directly informs the programs Theory of Change, logframe, and partner engagement strategy. 2. SCOPE OF WORK This consultancy will produce a single integrated report that presents three mandatory BMZ TDA components the Gender Analysis (GA), as well as Resilience, Peace and Conflict Analysis (RPCA).While the three analyses are to be presented in one document, each must be addressed with sufficient depth to stand independently as required by BMZ. The outcomes of these analyses will directly inform the design, Theory of Change, and logframe of IRCs 2026 BMZ TDA regional proposal for Syria and Lebanon. For Lebanon (Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar): The consultant will execute full-scope primary data collection (KIIs/FGDs) alongside secondary desk reviews across all pillars (RPCA, and GA). For Syria (Aleppo and Homs): A robust and comprehensive Resilience, Peace, and Conflict Analysis (RPCA) was concluded in May 2026. Therefore, the RPCA pillar for Syria is treated as complete secondary desk contributions. The consultant will review, extract, and synthesize the findings of the May 2026 Syria RPCA directly into the regional framework. Primary field data collection in Syria will be conducted exclusively for the Gender Analysis (GA).2.1 Consultants Role in the Resilience Analysis (RA) The RA must provide a comprehensive understanding of three interconnected areas, as required by BMZs Guiding Framework for Analysis, Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation: Existing risks and crises in the context, covering economic, ecological, political, security-related, and social dimensions at individual, household, community, and sub-national levels, with a particular focus on food security and livelihoods; Affected and responsible actors and structures, and their existing strengths, potential, and capacities (resilience capacities) to cope with risks and crises, analyzed across stabilization, adaptation, and transformation dimensions; Needs and opportunities to further strengthen crisis management and prevention capacities on a cross-sectoral basis. Syria Implementation Note: The consultant will extract these elements for Syria directly from the May 2026 Syria RPCA report. For Lebanon, full primary and secondary analysis is required. The completed Resilience Capacity Matrix (per BMZ Guiding Framework Appendix 3) covering both countries remains a mandatory final deliverable. 2.2 Consultants Role in the Peace and Conflict Analysis (PCA) The PCA must address four mandatory elements as required by BMZs Guiding Framework: Key drivers of conflict, fragility, and violence in target areas, including actor mapping and analysis of structural, proximate, and trigger factors; Relevance assessment: how the proposed program relates to peace and security dynamics, and how it could contribute to or undermine stability; Risks for project realization arising from the conflict and fragility of context, including cross border access constraints, partner risks, and operational risks; Do-no-harm and conflict-sensitive impact monitoring: how the program design minimizes unintended negative effects and how conflict sensitivity will be tracked during implementation. The PCA must also address the HDP (Humanitarian-Development-Peace) Nexus dimension, identifying coordination opportunities with humanitarian and peacebuilding actors active in target areas, and assessing where IRCs program can contribute to collective outcomes. Syria Implementation Note: The baseline conflict drivers, actor maps, and local peace capacities for Homs and Aleppo will be extracted and synthesized directly from the May 2026 Syria RPCA. No new primary field data collection for conflict mapping will be executed in Syria. The consultant will explicitly address the HDP (Humanitarian-Development-Peace) Nexus dimension and coordination opportunities for both contexts identifying coordination opportunities with humanitarian and peacebuilding actors active in target areas, and assessing where IRCs program can contribute to collective outcomes. 2.3 Consultants Role in the Gender Analysis (GA) The GA must primarily address the contextual gender dimensions facing the target population, as required by BMZs Gender and Inclusion guidance for GG-2 marker compliance. The GA will involve active primary data collection across both Lebanon and Syria to capture critical structural shifts. The analysis must cover: Gender dimensions and inequalities in Syria and Lebanon, with particular attention to the target governorates: differential access to resources, services, and decision-making; gendered impacts of displacement; and protection risks facing women, girls, men, and boys; Gender dimensions by sector: how gender shapes access to resources and outcomes from Livelihoods and Education/ECD interventions; How gender intersects with other dimensions of identity to vulnerability (age, disability, displacement status, ethnicity etc) Gender dimension of return: what are the gender specific constraints to return and reintegration Gender sensitivity of local partner organizations proposed for the program; Recommendations for gender-sensitive and gender-transformative program design, including specific measures for the Livelihoods and Education/ECD sectors. Identify indicators and monitoring approaches that can track gender-transformative change over time. The GA must also examine how gender dynamics manifest differently across the target governorates in Syria and Lebanon, and how IRCs Livelihoods and Education/ECD interventions can be designed to address these contextual differences. The GA should secondarily review IRCs own programming capacity, including staff and M&E systems, but this internal review is not the primary purpose of the analysis. 3. CORE QUESTIONS The analysis must address the following question clusters. Questions are organized by analytical component, but the consultant is expected to address cross-cutting linkages throughout. Resilience Analysis 1. Risks and crises 1.1 What are the main economic, ecological, political, security-related, and social risks facing communities in the target areas? 1.2 How do risks and vulnerabilities manifest differently for women, men, boys, and girls, and for different displacement categories (host community, IDP, refugee, returnee)? 1.3 How have the events of December 2024 (change in government/fall of the Assad regime) and subsequent developments altered the risk landscape in Syria? How does the war in Lebanon impact Syrian refugees, and how does this impact return dynamics? 2. Actors and resilience capacities 2.1 Which actors -- including local authorities, civil society, co Tender Link : https://reliefweb.int/job/4216438/integrated-resilience-gender-and-peace-conflict-analysis-syria-and-lebanon
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