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The latest findings from Taipei, Taiwan-based intelligence provider TrendForce show that solid-state battery production volumes could reach GWh levels by 2027. The rapid expansion will lead to a decline in cell prices, which will reach the level of 0.6-0.7 yuan/Wh ($0.084-0.098) by 2035.
The push to commercialize solid-state batteries (SSBs) is well underway with industries betting on the technology, from the automotive industry to storage. However, while enthusiasm for solid-state batteries has waned somewhat as the technology has taken longer than expected to take off, semi-solid-state batteries, which use a hybrid solid-liquid electrolyte design, have been steadily moving toward commercialization.
The latest data from TrendForce reveals that major manufacturers around the world – including Toyota, Nissan and Samsung SDI – have already begun pilot production of all-solid-state batteries. Production volumes are estimated to reach GWh levels by 2027 as these companies race to scale up production.
The decades-old technology promises improvements in safety and energy density, but has so far struggled to achieve commercial success. High production costs, complex manufacturing processes and a lack of a mature supply chain have held back its deployment.
Meanwhile, semi-solid-state batteries have already been largely commercialised and are currently used in electric vehicles. According to TrendForce, they have already reached GWh-scale installation, with cell energy densities ranging from 300 to 360 Wh/kg.
The initial price of semi-solid-state batteries exceeds 1 yuan/Wh ($0.14/Wh) due to small production scales and the relative immaturity of manufacturing technologies. TrendForce predicts that with increasing production scale and technological advancements, the global cost of semi-solid-state batteries could fall below 0.4 yuan/Wh by 2035.
All-solid-state batteries are moving from sample prototype cells to engineering-scale production and are also expected to face high production costs in the early stages that could push up initial product prices. TrendForce predicts that by 2030, if the application scale of all-solid-state batteries exceeds 10 GWh, cell prices will likely fall to around 1 yuan/Wh. By 2035, cell prices could further decline to 0.6-0.7 yuan/Wh with rapid expansion of the mass market.
Focus on sulfide-based SSB technology
There are currently three ways to manufacture solid-state batteries based on different types of electrolytes, and each of them has its own technological bottlenecks. Polymer-based solid-state batteries are relatively mature and have already been commercialized in some parts of Europe. For example, the French company Blue Solutions already manufactures such solid-state batteries for Daimlers electric buses. However, this type of battery still suffers from problems with voltage tolerance and ionic conductivity.
Solid-state oxide electrolytes are known as the most chemically stable class of solid-state batteries, but they are difficult to manufacture. The “solid-solid” contact between the electrolyte and the cathode/anode active materials causes higher internal resistance.
Solid-state batteries based on sulfides have particularly strong potential due to their ionic conductivity, which is closest to, and may even surpass, that of liquid electrolytes. Major manufacturers, including Toyota, Samsung SDI, LGES, SK On, CATL and BYD, are exploring this class of solid-state batteries. However, this chemistry is unstable in air and very sensitive to moisture, adding complexity to the production process, and can release H2S gas, which is both poisonous and flammable.
TrendForce’s view on the development of solid-state battery technology is cautious but optimistic. “While key performance indicators such as charge/discharge rates and cycle times have not yet reached commercial levels – and current costs remain uncompetitive with liquid lithium-ion batteries – SSB costs will improve significantly as production ramps up, thanks to sound government policies and capital investment,” the analysts say. |
